Fundstrat Research Director Tom Lee recently expressed an interesting view. He believes that starting this year, the escalation of geopolitical conflicts, increased trade barriers, and growing political divisions will combine to likely cause a "painful adjustment" in the US stock and crypto markets by early 2026.

Specifically, US stocks could face a decline of 15%-20%. It sounds a bit alarming, but Lee's logic is as follows—after enduring the initial pain, as the Federal Reserve shifts to a more dovish stance, and the quantitative tightening cycle ends, the market is expected to see a significant rebound by the end of the year.

In other words, 2026 could be a year of "initial decline followed by recovery." Be mentally prepared for the short term, but from a full-year perspective, there may actually be opportunities. For crypto investors, this judgment still has some reference value.