#日本国债突现抛售风暴

On January 21, the Japanese government bond market experienced a rare and intense fluctuation, with 30-year and 40-year ultra-long-term bond yields soaring by over 25 basis points in a single day, marking an extreme event rarely seen in recent years. The immediate trigger was the Japanese government's clear signal—"end fiscal austerity"—shifting towards tax cuts and expansionary spending. This statement quickly altered market expectations regarding Japan's long-term fiscal discipline and the supply-demand structure of government bonds.
In the short term, this appears to be a concentrated sell-off driven by expectations re-pricing. Japan has long anchored itself on "low inflation + fiscal restraint + ultra-loose monetary policy," supporting one of the world's lowest yield curves. Once the fiscal side actively leverages, ultra-long-term bonds naturally bear the brunt; the longer the maturity, the more sensitive to inflation and supply changes, resulting in more intense volatility.
However, more attention should be paid to the medium-term spillover effects.
Japan is one of the world's largest capital exporters in bonds. If Japan's long-term interest rate center rises, even slightly, it could reduce the attractiveness of Japanese capital continuing to allocate into U.S. and European bonds, exerting a "backstop" upward pressure on global long-term interest rates. This is not a sign of rates fully returning to an upward cycle, but rather the "lower bound" of the global low-interest-rate era being raised.
For risk assets, this event is more of a structural impact rather than a systemic shock. Stocks and cryptocurrencies may experience short-term emotional disturbances, but as long as the Federal Reserve's policy path remains unchanged, the single-point volatility of Japanese government bonds is unlikely to evolve into sustained negative sentiment for global risk assets. What to truly watch out for is if "fiscal expansion + inflation resurgence" resonate in major economies, which could have a more profound impact on valuation systems.
Overall, this round of Japanese bond market volatility is more like a signal event: it reminds the market that the macro environment of "extremely low interest rates + high certainty" over the past decade is loosening, but not enough to declare that the world has entered a new interest rate hike cycle. Short-term shocks are manageable; mid-term, it is necessary to observe whether fiscal policies are truly implemented and whether inflation rises again.