In 2026, the commodity market is expected to see a decline in WTI crude oil prices, but gold and silver are on an upward trend.

The IG Market Analysis Team’s recently released 2026 Commodity Outlook Report has attracted attention. According to the report, the energy markets, including WTI crude oil prices, and precious metals markets are expected to show contrasting price movements, providing important insights for investors’ asset allocation strategies. The analysis suggests that precious metals will face structural upward pressure, while energy-related commodities such as WTI crude oil prices are at higher risk of decline.

Gold and Silver, Supported by Structural Demand

The precious metals market is forecasted to maintain a clear upward trend. For gold, a combination of declining real yields, increased government spending, and continued purchases by central banks worldwide will drive prices higher. Major investment banks’ analyses project gold prices to range between and @E1@ by 2026, with the possibility of surpassing the $5,000 mark depending on macroeconomic environment improvements.

In the case of silver, after experiencing a significant 120% increase in 2025, it is currently in a phase of seeking its fair value. Backed by five consecutive years of supply shortages and accelerating industrial demand, the target price is expected to break above $65, with technical analysis suggesting levels of $72 or $88 in some cases.

WTI Crude Oil and Brent Crude Oil, Continued Pressure from Oversupply

The energy markets are in a completely different environment from precious metals. Due to supply growth significantly outpacing demand, the entire crude oil market, including WTI crude oil prices, is facing downward pressure. The 2026 average outlook estimates Brent crude oil at around $62.23 and WTI crude oil at approximately $59, with both expected to decline substantially year-over-year. According to warnings from JP Morgan Chase, if oversupply worsens further, Brent crude oil could fall into the $30s.

Contrasting Market Structures of Precious Metals and Energy

The most notable point of this outlook is the clear divergence in structural trends within commodity markets. The precious metals sector is driven by substantive macroeconomic demand and continues to receive long-term structural support. Conversely, the energy market faces structural downward pressure, and although geopolitical risks may temporarily support prices, the fundamental issue of oversupply remains unresolved. For investors, understanding this divergence trend will be an essential element in formulating commodity trading strategies for 2026.