"Buy and Sell" Chip Turnover Nears the End K33: Bitcoin to Return to Bullish Dominance in 2026

The large-scale sell-off initiated by early Bitcoin holders, which has lasted for nearly two years, is finally coming to an end. According to the latest report released by research firm K33 Research, starting in 2024, these investors who bought and held long-term are beginning to cash out on a large scale. Vetle Lunde, Head of Research at K33 Research, stated that the current BTC price is $90.06K, and buyers are gradually realizing profits within this range.

Statistics show that over the past two years, approximately 1.6 million Bitcoins (worth about $144 billion at current prices) have re-entered circulation. These Bitcoins, which were deeply locked in long-term holders’ wallets, are now being activated and flowing into the market. Vetle Lunde emphasized that this is not simply wallet upgrades or technical adjustments, but a massive institutional cash-out process.

Long-term holders’ sell-off wave: 1.6 million Bitcoins have re-entered the market

Although some reactivation of early addresses may involve factors such as Grayscale Bitcoin Trust (GBTC) transitioning from a closed-end fund to a spot ETF, wallet consolidation, or security upgrades, Vetle Lunde believes these reasons are far from sufficient to explain such a large-scale re-circulation of Bitcoin. A more reasonable interpretation is that these long-term investors, who bought and held for many years, are now engaging in continuous chip distribution.

Data shows that the supply of Bitcoins with a coin age of over 2 years has become the second and third largest “long-term supply awakening year” in Bitcoin history in 2024 and 2025, only behind 2017. However, the nature of this wave is very different. The chip turnover in 2017 was mainly driven by the ICO boom and speculative trading of competing coins, whereas the current sell-off is more linked to the deep liquidity created by the US Bitcoin spot ETF and the large demand from corporate and institutional buyers.

Supported by ample liquidity, these early investors are able to gradually realize profits. K33 cites several large transactions as evidence:

• July 2026: Galaxy Digital completes an OTC trade of 80,000 Bitcoins
• August 2026: A “whale” exchanges 24,000 Bitcoins for Ethereum
• October to November 2026: Another large holder sells about 11,000 Bitcoins

Vetle Lunde pointed out that similar behaviors are quite common among other large coin holders, which is likely a key factor behind Bitcoin’s relatively underwhelming performance this year. Just in 2026, about $300 billion worth of Bitcoin (held for over a year) has re-entered circulation, significantly reducing the concentration of holdings.

Institutional buying takes over: supply-side forces will reverse in 2026

Looking ahead, K33 expects selling pressure to gradually ease. Vetle Lunde stated that about 20% of Bitcoin supply has been reawakened over the past two years. As this long-term selling pressure is gradually absorbed, the on-chain selling force will approach saturation. He further predicts that the supply of Bitcoins with a coin age of over 2 years is expected to end its long-term decline and rebound to levels above the current approximately 12.16 million Bitcoins by the end of 2026.

As early investors’ sell-offs gradually come to an end, the market structure will undergo a fundamental shift—buy-side dominance will gradually re-emerge. This transition will be reflected not only in on-chain indicators but also in market prices. Currently, the top 10 addresses hold only 5.87% of the supply, a significant decrease from historical highs, indicating that the chips have moved from extreme concentration toward relative dispersion.

Quarterly rebalancing effect: long-term certainty amid short-term volatility

K33 also reminds that as this quarter comes to an end, the market may experience technical effects from portfolio rebalancing. Vetle Lunde pointed out that historical data shows Bitcoin tends to move in the opposite direction at the start of a new quarter compared to the previous one. Since Bitcoin significantly lags other asset classes in Q4, for asset management firms with fixed allocation ratios, rebalancing at the end of this year or early next year could bring additional capital inflows, similar to what occurred from late September to early October this year.

Although historical data indicates that large-scale awakening of long-term supply usually occurs near market tops, Vetle Lunde argues that as Bitcoin penetrates mainstream financial systems through ETFs and advisory platforms, the long-term demand foundation is more solid than in any previous cycle. Even if short-term fluctuations persist, the structural logic of buy-side dominance is unshakable—those who bought and held will soon realize profits, while new buying forces are poised to emerge.