"Every decline is an opportunity" — what does it mean? Discussing the value of dollar-cost averaging in the crypto market

The current cryptocurrency market is at a delicate turning point. Selling pressure continues to ease, yet there is no obvious rebound in capital inflows. This seemingly contradictory situation ultimately reflects the market’s transition from extreme pessimism to rational expectations. For long-term participants, this environment is the golden period for dollar-cost averaging and strategic positioning.

ETH Staking Queue Near Zero, Selling Pressure Structure Shows Improvement

The changes within the Ethereum ecosystem best illustrate the issue. According to the latest data, the ETH staking withdrawal queue has nearly disappeared by early January, down more than 99% from the peak of 2.6 million ETH waiting to be unstaked. The significance behind this data is crucial— the previous peak of selling pressure is rapidly dissipating. The wave of stakers exiting has basically ended, indicating that the market’s selling pressure has been fundamentally alleviated from a structural perspective.

The entire crypto market’s selling pressure environment is shrinking. Although there are no clear signals of fresh capital inflows yet, the selling side’s strength is rapidly weakening. After all, with supply-side pressure easing, even if demand remains stable, prices will gradually have room to rise.

Sharp Contrast Between “Difficulty of Picking Money” in A-shares and “Hellish Difficulty” in the Crypto World

From a global perspective on capital markets, an interesting phenomenon can be observed: recent trading volume in A-shares has reached 3 trillion yuan, accounting for 2.54% of the total market capitalization. Compared to 3.37% during the 2015 bull market, there is still room for this indicator to rise. If trading volume surpasses 4 trillion yuan, it will be necessary to consider a top-out from the left side.

Regarding margin financing and securities lending (leverage), the current balance has reached 2.6 trillion yuan, a new record high, representing 2.53% of the circulating market value. Compared to the peak of over 4.5% during the 2015 bull market, it is still in a relatively healthy upward intermediate stage. Capital continues to flow in, and market sentiment is still accumulating. After 16 consecutive days of gains, occasional 1-2 day dips occur, which serve as windows for hot sectors like aerospace, brain-machine interfaces, and AI applications to seek entry at lower prices.

In contrast, the difficulty level in the crypto market is on a completely different scale. This is why more patience is needed at this moment—smart money is now making relatively easy profits in the neighboring stock markets. Who would want to continue fighting in the crypto market, which requires long-term patience?

When Will Institutional Funds Reflow? The New Logic of Global Asset Allocation

According to Binance’s 2025 Annual Report, the exchange’s annual trading volume reached $34 trillion, already comparable to A-shares ($58 trillion) and US stocks ($50 trillion). In terms of user scale, Binance’s 300 million users compare to 250 million in A-shares and 200 million in US stocks, indicating that the crypto market has developed into a relatively mature asset class.

This means that institutional capital allocation to crypto assets is no longer a marginal choice but an important component of overall asset allocation. As the stock market’s risk-reward ratio continues to decline and yield prospects narrow, the crypto market— which has remained stagnant at the bottom without significant gains— will become the main beneficiary of capital seeking returns.

The high probability of institutional reflow will occur against the backdrop of increasing stock market risks. As a water reservoir, the crypto market’s role will gradually emerge. Therefore, any decline at this position should be viewed as a high-quality opportunity for participation. The risk-reward ratio is extremely favorable, making it an ideal period for dollar-cost averaging. However, everything still needs time to be validated. Whether smart money will ultimately shift from the stock market to this overlooked market depends on observing the risk levels faced by the stock market.