#伊朗贸易制裁 Let's review the historical script first. Veteran players understand how deep this pain runs. Last October, a single tweet from Trump declaring a trade war directly slammed the crypto market to the ground — Bitcoin plummeted 15% in a single day, altcoins fared even worse, with half halving in value, 300,000 traders liquidated within 24 hours, and the total liquidation amount across the network exploded to over $1.1 billion. Why is the power of tariffs so strong? The core reason is that leverage in the crypto space is stacked like a Jenga tower, especially the cyclical lending of high-yield stablecoins, which is inherently fragile. When macro risks hit, the sound of leverage chain explosions is denser than firecrackers during New Year, leaving retail investors no time to cut losses.

But this time is different! The Iran situation has long ceased to be new. When the conflict between Israel and Iran escalated last year, the crypto market also experienced a wave of sell-offs, with 240,000 traders liquidated and nine-tenths of them long positions. However, the underlying logic this time has completely reversed. Iran has been under sanctions for years, with domestic electricity supplies strained to the point of cutting off office power and extinguishing streetlights. Yet, many people still rely on crypto assets for their livelihood, even setting up private mining farms (after all, local electricity prices are among the lowest globally, at just $0.005 per kWh). Although the government cracks down on illegal mining, it also reflects the strong demand for crypto assets locally. Trump’s recent tariff escalation seems like an economic siege, but in reality, it has pushed Iranian funds into a dead end — traditional channels are blocked, and crypto assets have become the only safe haven. During Iran’s internet shutdown last year, short-term trading halted, but in the long run, Iranians relied more on stablecoins for risk hedging. Now, this move will only cause more Iranian funds (conservatively estimated at around 5 million crypto holders) to flood into the crypto market, primarily favoring Bitcoin and stablecoins as hard currencies, rather than altcoins.

The more geopolitics are in chaos, the more the safe-haven attribute of crypto assets is highlighted. Iran is just a microcosm; countries under sanctions worldwide will accelerate their adoption of cryptocurrencies, as it’s the best way to bypass traditional barriers. Bitcoin’s “digital gold” attribute will continue to be reinforced. Once conflicts escalate, gold and Bitcoin are likely to strengthen simultaneously, forming a “safe-haven double flight” pattern. This is not wishful thinking — history has repeatedly validated this logic.