Bitcoin price would discount new US government shutdown.

Source: Criptonoticias Original Title: Bitcoin price discounts new US government shutdown Original Link:

Bitcoin and its reaction to political uncertainty

The price of BTC experienced extreme volatility during the partial shutdown of the U.S. government that occurred last year. According to data reflected on predictive market platforms, the probability that the U.S. government will undergo a new partial shutdown before January 31st rose to 73%.

This uptick in expectations of administrative paralysis occurs in a context of high social tension. Political uncertainty events have deepened divisions in the North American country, complicating budget negotiations and increasing the risk that Congress will not reach an agreement to fund government operations before the upcoming deadline of January 31st.

The role of Bitcoin in the face of institutional instability

In theory, Bitcoin is often perceived as a store of value and as an asset that should strengthen in the face of institutional instability. Under this premise, investors would seek to protect their capital outside the traditional financial system when the government shows signs of dysfunction.

However, market reality dictates a different behavior. In situations of high uncertainty, many investors have opted to liquidate positions in volatile assets to seek liquidity. In this way, they have treated the digital currency more as a risk asset than as a safe haven.

BTC behavior during the previous government shutdown

Data from the government shutdown that occurred between October and November 2025 demonstrate this. During that period of political crisis, the asset did not offer stability, but extreme volatility.

At the start of the shutdown, on October 1, 2025, the price experienced an initial rally driven by the safe haven narrative, reaching $125,800. But that enthusiasm was fleeting. Shortly after, BTC’s quote plummeted to $98,000, erasing gains as the market absorbed macroeconomic uncertainty and other factors even more important than the asset’s price.

The digital asset’s behavior was worse after the conflict ended, on November 13. Once the government was restored, the price continued its downward trend, reaching USD 80,600, demonstrating a negative performance compared to pre-conflict levels.

Conclusion

These data demonstrate that, due to its extreme volatility, Bitcoin did not behave as a store of value during the last government shutdown. The market could repeat this pattern of instability if the U.S. government finally shuts down again. Other factors, such as Bitcoin’s historical 4-year cycle or institutional capital inflows or outflows, could intensify or mitigate the event.