1.26

January 26
The Senate Agriculture Committee has postponed the hearing on the Crypto Market Structure Bill to January 27;

The SEC and CFTC will hold a joint event on cryptocurrency regulation coordination on January 27;

January 29
The Federal Reserve FOMC will announce the new interest rate decision on January 29;

January 30
The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics will release the December PPI data on January 30;

This week is both a data week and a news week, with three consecutive bearish signals:
1. Trump threatens to impose a 100% tariff on Canada. This could trigger retaliations from Canada and China.
2. China and the U.S. plan to jointly intervene in Japan's exchange rate. This could cause panic among carry trade investors.
3. The probability of a government shutdown in the U.S. on January 31 has risen to 78%, raising concerns of a repeat of October.

BTC
The weekend was initially stable, but Trump suddenly experienced significant emotional fluctuations, leading to the morning's situation; setting aside the news, looking at the technical side, Bitcoin's daily chart has returned to the lower end of the previous range near 85,000. This position is also the support level for this wave of volatility. If 85,000 is broken, the next target is below 78,000. From a larger perspective on the weekly chart, the risk has not yet been eliminated. In the short term, we need to watch whether the four-hour chart can form a divergence after completing the move away from this level, which could trigger a rebound. Additionally, we should monitor whether the range between 85,000 and 88,500 can oscillate and break upward. In summary, the support at 85,000 must hold, and for this rally to continue strengthening, Bitcoin needs to stabilize above 90,000. Support levels are 85,000-84,500, and resistance levels are 88,500-90,000.

ETH
Ethereum also returned to the previous bottom-fishing level around 2,800, testing this range repeatedly. The support zone between 2,600 and 2,800 is the previous support. Its current movement should also be considered in conjunction with Bitcoin. On the intraday basis, watch whether a divergence can form on the four-hour chart. The intraday range is likely to oscillate between 2,820 and 2,900, with support at 2,820-2,720 and resistance at 2,900-2,968.