The Coming Copper Crisis: Why the World Isn’t Ready

The Silent Shortage
Copper is transitioning from a "boring industrial metal" to a strategic resource critical for modern infrastructure.

Global demand is projected to surge from 28 million tonnes (today) to 42 million tonnes by 2040—driven by:

Electrification (EVs, grids)
Digital infrastructure (AI data centers)
Energy transition (renewables).
AI-related copper demand alone will grow 120%, reaching 2.5 million tonnes by 2040.

Supply Crunch
Production will peak at ~34 million tonnes by 2030, then decline to ~32 million tonnes by 2040 due to:

High capital costs
Slow permitting
Environmental/geopolitical constraints.

Result: A 10-million-tonne deficit (equivalent to 1/3 of today’s global demand).
Asia’s Dominance

60% of demand growth will come from Asia (China, India, Southeast Asia) for:
Urbanization
EV adoption
Grid expansion.

Once installed, copper remains "locked" in infrastructure for decades.

Strategic Shift

Copper is now:
Essential (no electricity, EVs, or data centers without it).

Irreplaceable (no viable alternatives at scale).
Supply-constrained (decades-long lead times for new mines).

Government-prioritized (national security implications).

The Bottom Line
This isn’t a temporary shortage—it’s structural scarcity.

Price spikes will follow, but the real issue is long-term access.
As one expert put it:

"Watch what the world cannot function without—not what’s popular."
Let me know if you'd like further details or analysis!