Market Overview for Today -- First, let's review. I've been thinking about this all day. Before this recent wave yesterday, were there any signs in the market data? I took another look, and it seems there weren't. Is the slight continuous decline in spot CVD a sign of selling pressure? We've seen this kind of situation before. Was it the climax at 5600 in gold? A sharp drop causing a follow-through? The earnings season in the US stock market, with MSFT leading a big drop in tech stocks causing margin calls? I don't know which is cause and which is effect; they could all be interconnected. Looking back, the last time gold reached a top and started to fall, Bitcoin also crashed (see Chart 1). So, we can only say that this wave occurred in a market that was already very fragile. External factors caused the crash, and this wave, like the one on 11.21, also involved two large negative deltas stacking within 24 hours. On 11.11, it was -3B+ to -4.7B. Yesterday and today, this wave was around -4.2B+ approaching -3B (see Chart 2). At the same time, open interest (OI) also provides guidance. If OI continues to stay high, it truly indicates the trend hasn't ended yet (see Charts 3 and 4). After the first wave on 11.21, OI remained high. The bears didn't retreat, and the bulls kept accumulating. This led to a second wave. When the bulls were completely desperate and the bears took profits, OI dropped sharply and stabilized. Yesterday and today, after the first wave near 83k, OI was still high, with bulls and bears not surrendering to each other. This is abnormal. Sure enough, a new wave was triggered by the news about the new Federal Reserve Chair. This finally caused OI to drop. The bulls surrendered, and the bears took profits accordingly. This pattern was revalidated, and that is probably the biggest takeaway from this wave.

BTC0,93%
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