TMC Stock Under $10: Is This the Right Moment for Deep-Sea Mining Investors?

On the Pacific Ocean floor, tens of billions of dry tons of polymetallic nodules remain untouched. Each nodule is packed with metals essential for clean energy and electric vehicle batteries—cobalt, copper, nickel, and manganese. Together, they could represent one of the world’s largest underdeveloped critical mineral reserves. The company positioned to tap this resource is The Metals Company (NASDAQ: TMC), and recent regulatory developments have just unlocked a faster path to profitability.

NOAA’s Policy Shift Accelerates the Timeline

In late January, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration announced a significant change to deep-seabed mining regulations. Applicants can now submit a single consolidated application covering both exploration and commercial recovery rights—rather than applying for exploration first, then separately pursuing commercial permits. This consolidation streamlines what was once a multi-stage approval process.

TMC has seized this opportunity immediately, becoming the first company to file under the new framework. The practical impact is substantial: the company could reach commercial operations faster than previously anticipated. For investors, this shift from regulatory uncertainty to a clearer pathway represents a meaningful turning point.

The Math Behind the Opportunity

The valuation story tells an interesting tale. TMC carries a market cap of $3.7 billion while generating zero revenue. Yet according to the company’s own estimates, it controls nodules with an in-place value exceeding $23.6 billion. If TMC successfully transitions from exploration to extraction and realizes even a fraction of this potential value, the upside for shareholders could be substantial.

At current levels below $10 per share, some investors view the entry point as attractive relative to the company’s nodule reserves. The price-to-resource calculation presents an intriguing risk-reward profile for those betting on commercialization success.

From Uncertainty to Clearer Execution Milestones

Until recently, TMC’s story carried heavy question marks. Regulatory approval remained distant and undefined. Cash burn was consuming capital without revenue in sight. The path to profitability seemed distant.

Now the picture is shifting. With NOAA’s streamlined permit process and TMC’s first-mover advantage in applications, the company has crossed a psychological and procedural milestone. Industry observers note that consolidating the approval stages could materially shorten the timeline to revenue generation.

Critical Risks Remain Real

This is not a risk-free opportunity. Execution challenges loom large. Mining operations in the deep sea face technical, environmental, and operational complexities. Regulatory approval, while now on a faster track, is not guaranteed. Public and environmental opposition to seabed mining could yet complicate the path forward.

Additionally, even with successful mining operations, global commodity prices and battery technology trends will determine whether the nodules prove economically valuable at scale.

The Entry Point Consideration

Shares trading under $10 have attracted investor attention precisely because of these dynamics. For long-term investors with a thesis around critical mineral scarcity and deep-sea resource development, the current valuation offers a reasonable entry before potential regulatory breakthroughs and operational milestones.

However, this remains a high-conviction play on a future that hasn’t yet materialized. Success requires TMC to clear multiple hurdles: securing permits, deploying mining infrastructure, and achieving profitable extraction. The rewards could be significant—but so are the risks. Investors should size positions accordingly and monitor regulatory developments closely as the company pursues its permit applications.