Predicting Bitcoin Price, I Discovered a Harsh Truth: Most People Lose Because They're "Too Confident"

Playing Bitcoin price prediction on Polymarket, there's a particularly interesting phenomenon:
👉 The more confident people are, the easier it is for them to lose money
Why?
Because prediction markets aren't about whether you're "right or wrong," but rather about: 👉 whether your timing is right
Many people make correct predictions, but enter too late when the odds have already reflected expectations, and they still can't make money.
I've summarized one core technique: 📌 Only enter when "information just appears"
For example: Policy direction just shifts, fund movements just emerge, market sentiment just turns
At this point, the odds haven't fully adjusted yet—that's the best opportunity.
Let me emphasize one more thing: 👉 Don't predict the outcome, predict "expectation changes"
Poll in comments 👇 👉 What do you think is the highest BTC can reach this year? Write a number and see who gets closest! #Gate正式接入Polymarket