A Few Thoughts on the 2026 $BTC Trend 🤔

According to traditional cycles, the crypto market has already entered a bear market phase. The normal rhythm is to endure until around 2028 before a significant upward movement occurs.

This round of bear market is a bit different. Over the past six months, this continuous decline has actually cleared out many emotions and leverage, and the short-term downward momentum is clearly weakening.

Therefore, I believe that in 2026, it may not necessarily be a reversal, but there is a high probability of a decent rebound.

As for 2027, whether the market continues to strengthen or reverts to weakness depends on how far this rebound in 2026 can go: whether it results in healthy recovery or overheats again.

Currently, the United States is one of the largest Bitcoin holders, with the strongest policy influence. The upcoming November midterm elections are centered on the battle for congressional control. Such timing is never just a political event for the market; it’s also a game of liquidity and expectations.

Against this backdrop, policy directions are somewhat predictable:
On one hand, monetary policy is likely to lean towards easing, such as rate cut expectations.
On the other hand, geopolitical conflicts may also ease, aiming to provide the market with a relatively stable environment.

So, we don’t have to wait until the midterm elections in November; the real changes might be reflected earlier, between July and September. By then, if liquidity expectations improve, global risk assets could rebound together.

For BTC, reaching $80k is not entirely impossible; it mainly depends on whether that wave of sentiment can be ignited.

However, if the rise is too rapid and aggressive, pushing emotions to the extreme again, a deep correction in 2027 would be quite normal—cycles always follow this pattern.

Even if you are confident about the rebound in 2026, it’s best not to leverage too much, especially since BTC has already experienced five consecutive monthly declines.

Volatility within cycles is often used to shake out weak hands. Those who can truly benefit from the big market moves are usually not the most accurate predictors but the ones who survive the longest.

Looking at the longer term, many of the ups and downs in the middle will be smoothed out. What truly matters is whether you hold onto core assets during the right cycle. #BTC四年周期