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Gold $XAU What's the outlook for the upcoming trend???
I have been predicting for a week that international gold would rebound to around 4900, and I reminded everyone that the 4800-5000 USD range is a short-term profit-taking zone.
So, has the short-term gold rebound ended? Whether it has ended depends on whether the 4650-4700 range is effectively broken on the four-hour chart. As shown in Figure 1:
Blue support zone 4650-4700, if the four-hour level is effectively broken (note: a quick break and recovery does not count!), then the rebound is over, and gold will test lower supports around 4300 USD or even near 4000 USD.
Figure 2 shows the path after the break, Path One
If, on the four-hour chart, gold does not effectively break below the 4650-4700 support zone, then the rebound is not over and it will continue to test 4900 USD or 5000 USD higher.
Note that this is always a profit-taking zone because the March monthly candle closed with a large bearish candle, and April does not have the conditions for a big rally. It’s advisable to reduce positions at resistance zones.
Most likely, gold will still test the lower support around 4300 USD, or even near 4000 USD. Be cautious of risks in the short term and avoid chasing highs!
If it does not effectively break below, then Path Two is shown in Figure 3.
Yes, in summary, whether gold reaches 4900-5000 or not, in about three weeks it should test around 4300 or 4000.
Be patient. April will see gold enter a volatile phase. We should hold light positions at key support levels and reduce at resistance levels.
Figure 4 shows the key support and resistance levels for gold on the daily chart.
I have been predicting for a week that international gold will rebound to around 4900, and I’ve reminded everyone that the 4800-5000 USD range is a short-term profit-taking zone.
So, has the short-term gold rebound ended? Whether it has ended depends on whether the 4650-4700 range is effectively broken on the four-hour chart. As shown in Figure 1:
Blue support zone 4650-4700, if the four-hour level is effectively broken (note: a quick break and recovery does not count!), then the rebound is over, and gold will test lower supports around 4300 USD or even near 4000 USD.
As shown in Figure 2, this is Path A after the breakdown.
If, on the four-hour chart, gold has not effectively broken below the 4650-4700 support zone, then the rebound is not over and it will continue to test 4900 USD or 5000 USD higher.
Note that this is always a profit-taking zone because the March monthly candle closed with a large bearish candle, and April does not have the conditions for a big rally, so profit-taking should occur at resistance zones.
Most likely, gold will still test the lower support around 4300 USD, or even near 4000 USD. Be cautious of risks in the short term and avoid chasing highs!
If the support is not effectively broken, then Path B is shown in Figure 3.
Yes, in summary, whether gold reaches 4900-5000 or not, in about three weeks it should test around 4300 or near 4000.
Be patient; April will start a consolidation phase. We should go long lightly at key support levels and reduce positions at resistance levels.
Figure 4 shows the key support and resistance levels for gold on the daily chart.