$XBR 【Breaking News: Iran Opens the Strait of Hormuz, International Oil Prices Plunge Over 10% in a Single Day】

Xinhua News Agency Washington, April 17 — U.S. President Donald Trump announced on social media on the evening of April 17 that Iran has fully opened the Strait of Hormuz, allowing unrestricted passage. Driven by this major positive news, international crude oil prices experienced a sharp decline. As of 21:23 Beijing time, WTI U.S. crude futures fell by 10.14% to $85.09 per barrel; Brent crude futures dropped below the $90 mark, trading at $89.99 per barrel.

Earlier, on April 12, when Trump announced the U.S. military blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, both oil benchmarks surged over 7% in a single day, both surpassing $100. Currently, both the U.S. and Iran are signaling positive negotiations. Trump stated that face-to-face talks with Iran might take place this weekend, with the hope of reaching a permanent ceasefire agreement.

Latest prices and subsequent trends as of April 17

Real-time prices (as of 21:23)

- WTI U.S. crude: $85.09 per barrel (down 10.14% today)
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- Brent crude: $89.99 per barrel (down 9.46% today)

Brief analysis of future trends

- Short-term (1-2 weeks): Geopolitical risk premiums will rapidly diminish, and oil prices are likely to fluctuate within the $80-$95 per barrel range. If substantive progress is made in U.S.-Iran negotiations this weekend, Brent oil may further decline toward $85; if negotiations break down or signs of another blockade reappear, prices will quickly rebound above $95.
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- Mid-term (second half of the year): The global crude oil supply remains loose (high U.S. shale oil production, potential OPEC+ output increases), combined with weak demand, leading to a slow decline in the oil price center to $80-$90 per barrel.
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- Key variables: the final outcome of U.S.-Iran negotiations, the speed of reopening the Strait of Hormuz, and OPEC+ production cut policy adjustments.