🟠 BTC nears $76K, but too early to call a bull run — demand remains weak

Bitcoin touched $76,000, but Glassnode data suggest this isn’t the start of a new bull market. Capital inflows are weak, and active investors are still sitting in losses.

📊 Profitability signal
— The True Market Mean (TMM) shows the average purchase price of active BTC holders
— BTC has been below this for 75 days, leaving active holders about −5% underwater
— Historically, similar periods lasted from 2 days to 11 months, with deepest drawdowns up to 57% (2018–2019 and 2022–2023)

🧭 What needs to change
— TMM sits at $78,013 — crossing above this would signal active holders returning to profit and historically aligns with momentum resets

📉 Capital outflows pressuring price
— 365-day growth of market cap relative to realized cap has been negative for 105 days in 2026
— New capital entering the market is sparse: only 7 positive inflow days so far this year
— Realized cap dropped from $1.12T → $1.08T

📌 Bottom line

The market isn’t attracting enough money to push price higher. Slower outflows show stability, not a reversal. For real bullish momentum, inflows need to turn positive and sustain over time.

Satoshi Tweeted🔑