#美股创下历史新高

13 straight gains! Why are U.S. stocks “raging”?

The neighboring U.S. stock market is going crazy. In mid-April, all three major U.S. stock indices collectively hit fresh record highs. The S&P 500 broke through the 7,000-point whole-number level, and the Nasdaq Composite achieved 13 straight gains and stayed above 24,000 points. Only the Dow Jones Industrial Average finished slightly lower due to drag from traditional sectors. Amid the haze of the U.S.-Iran war, U.S. stocks suddenly became the best safe haven.

👉 Why have U.S. stocks surged?
1. Geopolitical risk eases, market sentiment rapidly recovers

The phased cooling of the U.S.-Iran conflict is the direct trigger for this rally. As Iran announced the opening of the Strait of Hormuz, global energy supply concerns were significantly relieved. WTI crude oil prices plunged 11.47% week-on-week to $84.66 per barrel, and market panic about energy-driven stagflation faded.

（CTA）and leveraged ETFs combined to buy nearly $50 billion worth of stocks, forming a positive feedback loop of “the higher it rises, the more you buy.”
2. Big Tech’s performance beats expectations; the AI industry chain becomes the growth engine

The standout performance during earnings season provides fundamental support for the market. First-quarter earnings for S&P 500 constituent stocks rose 17% year over year, reaching the highest level since Q4 2021. Among them, the technology sector contributed significantly. Microsoft Copilot’s commercialized revenue exceeded $12 billion in a single quarter; Azure cloud services’ AI computing capacity demand rose 80% year over year; Tesla completed the AI5 autonomous-driving chip tape-out, with performance improving by 30% versus the prior generation; chipmakers such as Nvidia and AMD saw orders far exceed expectations, and the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index simultaneously refreshed its historical peak. The combined market value of these tech giants accounts for 55% of the Nasdaq’s total market cap, directly propelling the index higher across the board.

3. Rate-cut expectations from the Federal Reserve heat up; liquidity conditions improve

As geopolitical risks decline, market expectations for the Federal Reserve shifting its monetary policy continue to rise. The yield on the U.S. 10-year Treasury fell from 4.31% to 4.26%, and the 2-year yield dropped to 3.71%, reflecting investors’ bets on short-term interest rates moving lower. The improved liquidity environment is a clear positive for tech growth stocks. Combined with a resonance between technical signals and fund flows, the Nasdaq repeatedly showed gap-up breakout signals. Quantitative funds and institutional capital continued to increase their holdings, further reinforcing the upward trend.

👉 What opportunities to watch next— which sectors?

1. AI industry chain: a full-scale explosion from computing power to applications
Semiconductors and computing power: Nvidia (NVDA), as the clear leader in AI chips, has seen its stock price rise for 11 straight trading days. Although the short-term gains are large, long-term demand for computing power remains highly certain. AMD (AMD), driven by AI chip orders exceeding expectations, surged 7.8% in a single day to a record high. The earnings upside potential is worth paying attention to.

AI applications and cloud services: Microsoft (MSFT) is accelerating the commercialization of Copilot. With price increases across the Surface lineup and expanded investment in data centers, its stock price is again nearing the prior high. Oracle (ORCL) is expanding the coverage of its AI cloud services and benefits from enterprises’ digital transformation needs.
Quantum technology: Nvidia released the world’s first AI model for calibrating and correcting errors in quantum computing, driving quantum computing concept stocks such as D-Wave Quantum and IonQ to rise by more than 15%. The industry is entering a key catalyst period.
2. Consumer and financials: beneficiaries of economic resilience

Discretionary consumption: Tesla (TSLA) completed the AI5 chip tape-out. Breakthroughs in autonomous driving technology pushed the stock price up 7.62% in a single day, the largest gain so far this year—showing the market’s reassessment of its technology attributes. Traditional consumer leaders such as Nike (NKE), even though revenue declined, performed better than expected, demonstrating resilience that can carry through cycles.
Financial sector: Institutions such as UBS expect financial sector performance to be higher than the market average. As the economy recovers and the interest-rate environment improves, there is significant valuation-repair potential in sectors such as banking and insurance. Leading names such as JPMorgan Chase (JPM) and Berkshire Hathaway (BRK.A) are worth watching.

3. Defensive sectors: choices to balance portfolio risk
Healthcare: With defensive characteristics and growth potential, Eli Lilly (LLY)’s oral GLP-1 weight-loss drug was approved, and the stock is up more than 70% year to date. Abbott (ABT) is seeing rising demand for diabetes monitoring devices, with steady performance.
Utilities: Providing stable cash flow amid market volatility, stocks like American Electric Power (AEP) and Duke Energy (DUK) have relatively high dividend yields, suitable for investors seeking steady returns.

👉 Next outlook strategy— go long U.S. stocks on Gate

1. There is still upward momentum in the short term

Based on historical data, when the S&P 500 recovers from a 5%-10% pullback and hits new highs, roughly two-thirds of the time the rally continues its gains over the following one or two months. Currently, market sentiment is optimistic, liquidity is ample, and with technology stocks supported by earnings, the short-term trend is expected to stay strong. UBS strategists maintain an “attractive” rating for U.S. stocks, believing the S&P 500 still has strong upside potential for the rest of this year.

2. Potential risk factors
Geopolitical tensions may recur: The U.S.-Iran conflict has not been fully resolved. If the situation escalates again, oil prices could rebound, triggering market volatility.

Risk of an AI bubble: Some AI concept stocks have risen too much, and earnings cannot support the elevated valuations. In the short term, pressure from pullbacks has been building up.
Uncertainty in monetary policy: If inflation data rebounds, expectations for Fed rate cuts may be dashed, putting pressure on tech growth stocks.
Debt and political risks: The size of U.S. Treasury debt exceeds $39 trillion. Combined with political uncertainty, this may constrain the long-term rally.
3. Investment strategy recommendations
Balanced allocation: Maintain a balance among growth stocks (AI, tech), value stocks (financials, consumer), and defensive sectors (healthcare, utilities) to reduce the risk of volatility from any single sector.
Buy on pullbacks: Use a pullback-buying approach to avoid chasing prices higher. Take advantage of normal market pullbacks to build positions in stages. For example, when the Nasdaq fund or S&P 500 fund pulls back by 10%, you may increase positions appropriately.
Focus on earnings certainty: Prefer companies with ample cash flow and a full order book—such as large tech leaders and financial institutions—and avoid concept stocks with overly high valuations that lack fundamental support.