Market Strategy Tips (Evening of April 22 — Since April 23)

Market Analysis
Since yesterday, the market has been in a pattern of divergence between bullish and bearish forces: the Federal Reserve's Beige Book implementation + the US dollar index rebounding from its bottom + gold profit-taking concentrated sell-offs at high levels + continuous capital inflows into the crypto market. After hitting a historic high overnight, gold experienced a sharp decline, dropping over 2.7% in a single day, losing the $3,300 level. During the Asia-Europe session, it saw an oversold technical rebound, showing a volatile pattern of "high-level collapse → oversold correction → wide-range fluctuation"; the crypto market continued its strong upward trend, with Bitcoin breaking through $94,000 to reach a nearly 7-week high, and mainstream coins surging across the board, driven by institutional capital inflows and short covering, forming a one-sided bullish pattern.

Macro News
1. Core macro theme: The Federal Reserve's Beige Book signals caution, the US dollar index rebounds from the bottom, and expectations of rate cuts continue to cool down.

Federal Reserve policy expectations further solidify: On the early morning of April 24 Beijing time, the Fed released its latest Beige Book, showing that since the last report, US economic activity has hardly changed, with only five regions experiencing slight growth and four regions showing declines. Uncertainty about international trade policies persists across industries, and companies plan to pass additional costs onto consumers. On the same day, Fed voting member Harker clearly stated that now is not a good time for preemptive rate cuts, and more clear signals of inflation easing are needed before considering such moves. As a result, the CME FedWatch tool shows the market's probability of holding rates steady in May has risen to 93.9%, while the chance of a rate cut in June has fallen to 58.7%, further shrinking the full-year rate cut expectations.

Dollar and US Treasury yields reverse: After Trump retracted his comments about "firing Powell," concerns over the Fed's independence eased, and the dollar index rebounded overnight, rising 0.7% during the day, recovering most of its losses from the previous three-year low, currently at 99.40. US Treasury yields mostly rose, with the 10-year yield remaining around 4.39%, and the 2-year yield up 5.8 basis points at 3.8791%, exerting phased pressure on non-yield assets.

Middle East and crude oil markets: The second round of high-level technical talks between the US and Iran has been postponed to April 26, easing geopolitical tensions marginally; meanwhile, disagreements within OPEC+ on production increases have emerged, with Kazakhstan stating it cannot implement its quota, raising concerns about accelerated output in June. International oil prices fell initially and then rebounded overnight. At the close, WTI crude futures rose 0.84% to $62.79 per barrel, and Brent crude futures rose 0.65% to $66.55 per barrel.

2. Gold: Overnight plunge created the largest single-day decline of the year, with oversold rebounds during the Asia-Europe session, intensifying the tug-of-war between bulls and bears.

Price trend: International spot gold opened overnight at $3,348, reaching a high of $3,386.64, then profit-taking by bulls caused a sharp sell-off, with the lowest at $3,260.40. It closed down 2.69% at $3,289.93, the largest single-day decline of the year. During the Asia-Europe session, oversold buying pushed prices to a quick rebound, reaching a high of $3,367.53, currently at $3,347.95, up 1.83% intraday. COMEX gold futures closed overnight down 3.45% at $3,301.70 per ounce, with an intraday rebound of over 1.4%. In the domestic market, Shanghai Gold closed overnight down 2.22%, but rebounded during the day to rise 0.91% to 7,922.0 yuan/gram. Mainstream brands like Chow Tai Fook and Lao Feng Xiang have retail prices for pure gold dropped back to 1,035–1,038 yuan/gram, down more than 15 yuan/gram from the previous high.

Core drivers:
Downside: Profit-taking at historic highs, the dollar index rebounding, hawkish Fed signals reinforcing expectations of rate hikes pause, combined with technical corrections after prior overbought conditions, leading to a "sell everything" panic and a record-breaking daily trading volume on COMEX gold futures.
Rebound: Global central banks' persistent physical gold buying support in the 3250–3300 USD range, combined with geopolitical uncertainties in the Middle East, safe-haven demand underpinning oversold recovery, and the long-term logic of 19 consecutive quarters of net central bank gold accumulation remains intact.

Key ranges: Core support at 3280–3300 USD (overnight low + psychological level), strong support at 3250–3260 USD (intraday dip low); core resistance at 3360–3380 USD (intraday high), strong resistance at 3400 USD round number.

3. Crypto Market: Continues its one-sided surge, Bitcoin breaks through $94,000 to reach a new phase high, with a persistent wave of short liquidations.

Price trend: Bitcoin opened overnight at $87,500, then continued its one-way rise, breaking through $90,000, $92,000, and $94,000 levels consecutively, reaching a high of $94,142.5, the highest since March 2025. It is currently at $93,628.5, up over 6.42% in 24 hours. Ethereum surged simultaneously, hitting a high of $2,480, up over 14% in 24 hours. Mainstream coins like SOL and DOGE also rose over 9%, and the total crypto market cap expanded by over $200 billion in a single day.

Funds and on-chain data: US spot Bitcoin ETF saw continuous large net inflows, with $917 million net inflow on April 23, the largest single-day inflow since Trump took office, with five consecutive days of net inflows. BlackRock's IBIT and Fidelity's FBTC together netted over $75 million, while Grayscale's GBTC experienced two consecutive days of zero net outflows, indicating institutional capital is flowing back. The futures market experienced a wave of short liquidations, with data from Coinglass showing over 160k traders liquidated in the past 24 hours, totaling $624 million, with short liquidations accounting for over 94%. Bitcoin short liquidations alone reached $321 million, making short covering a key driver of this rally. On-chain data shows long-term holders' positions remain at a record high of 68%, with exchange-held BTC net outflows exceeding 28k coins in a day, indicating very strong underlying support and limited selling pressure.

Key ranges: Core support at $90,000–$92,000 (intraday consolidation zone), strong support at $88,000–$90,000 (breakout level); core resistance at $94,000–$95,000 (intraday high), strong resistance at $97,000 (dense trapped positions).

Special Reminders
Gold is currently in an oversold correction cycle after a historic high plunge. The overnight drop of over 2.7% confirms short-term profit-taking pressure has been released, but with the dollar index rebounding and hawkish Fed expectations still in place, high-level volatility risks remain. Do not blindly buy the dip or go against the trend. The area above $3,360 has become a short-term strong resistance zone. Be cautious of a second downward wave if the rebound falters; it is recommended to hold a light position and wait until the price stabilizes in the support zone of $3,280–$3,300 before attempting small long positions, with strict stop-loss at $3,250. Consider taking profits on rallies above $3,360, and strictly control position sizes to avoid risks from uncertain market reversals.

The crypto market's recent strong rally has broken through previous major resistance levels, with the medium-term upward trend reinforced. However, market sentiment has entered a frenzy zone, and after a rapid short-term rise, technical corrections are likely. The risk of a sharp pullback above $94,000 has significantly increased. Do not chase high positions with heavy leverage; keep positions within 40%. Only consider adding on dips back to the strong support zone of $90,000–$92,000 after stabilization. If the price drops again below $90,000, be alert to the risk of a deep short-term correction, reduce positions promptly to lock in profits, and prioritize avoiding high-level retracements.