Ultimate victory in the encryption world! After the SEC's disastrous defeat in the lawsuit against Ripple, the XRP ETF will ring the death knell for traditional regulation. Nate Geraci, president of The ETF Store, predicts that the first spot XRP ETF will be launched within the next two weeks. This expectation is mainly based on the recent resolution of the legal dispute between Ripple and the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), as well as the optimistic sentiment in the market regarding changes in the encryption regulatory environment. 1. Background and Market Significance of the Prediction Nate Geraci pointed out that the SEC's five-year lawsuit against Ripple concluded three months ago, which cleared a key obstacle for the approval of a spot XRP ETF. He believes that the launch of such an ETF would signify a fundamental shift in the SEC's tough regulatory stance on encryption, marking the "last bell toll for anti-encryption regulators." This prediction is closely related to market dynamics: after the SEC dropped its appeal against Ripple in March 2025, the price of XRP rose by 10%, while Polymarket data shows that the market's expected probability for the approval of an XRP ETF within 2025 has risen to 87%. 2. Regulatory Developments and Institutional Trends The resolution of the legal dispute between the SEC and Ripple is a core driving force. In July 2023, the court ruled that XRP itself does not constitute a security (only direct sales by institutions may violate the law), and the SEC officially abandoned its appeal in 2025, clarifying the non-security nature of XRP. This result prompted several institutions to submit applications, including Bitwise and WisdomTree, which have already registered XRP ETF products. Market analysis suggests that large asset management companies like BlackRock may follow suit, further accelerating the approval process. 3. Potential Impact of XRP ETF If the spot XRP ETF is approved, investors can indirectly invest in XRP through traditional stock accounts without the need to directly manage the tokens, lowering the operational threshold. Compared with Bitcoin ETF, XRP ETF faces higher volatility and regulatory residual risks, but its practical value in the field of cross-border payments may attract institutional funds. In addition, the expansion of the Ripple ecosystem (such as the launch of RLUSD stablecoin) may also enhance the long-term value support for XRP. 4. Future Challenges and Uncertainties Although the outlook is optimistic, the SEC may impose additional requirements on the ETF structure, such as strict custody arrangements or liquidity guarantees. Meanwhile, XRP still needs to deal with global regulatory differences, as some countries may still regard it as a security. The market needs to pay attention to the SEC's final approval details and the scale of the first batch of ETFs, as these factors will directly influence the price trends of XRP and market acceptance.

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