In July 2026, Bitcoin at $62,470, ETH at $1,756, RSI collectively hovering near 30—do you think this is a bear market? No, this could be the last golden pit before the launch of a "true bull market."
1. The current market is eerily calm before the storm
$BTC From the highs of $126,000 in October 2025, it has halved to $62,000;
$ETH From the peak down to $1,756, with the lower Bollinger Band at $1,018.
Bitcoin saw two consecutive quarters of decline in the first half of the year—down 22% in Q1 and another 14% in Q2.
In June, U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs saw net outflows of approximately $4.5 billion, with BlackRock's IBIT experiencing $1.72 billion in net redemptions in a single week. Strategy reported a net loss of $12.54 billion in the first quarter, breaking its five-year "never sell coins" pledge.
But undercurrents are already stirring.
On July 2, Bitcoin ETFs recorded a single-day net inflow of $221.7 million, ending a ten-day streak of capital outflows.
Over the past two weeks, Bitcoin whales have accumulated over 270k BTC.
More critically—retail investors, mid-sized whales, and large entities have all simultaneously shifted from net selling to net buying over the past 30 days.
On-chain analysis shows that when small holders and large whales buy at the same time, it historically signals a strong price bottom.
2. Three forces are about to resonate—this is the engine of a "true bull market"
First force: Trump's "crypto super kingdom" is taking shape
The person controlling the global economy is personally rewriting the rules of the crypto world.
On July 1, Trump's annual financial disclosure report stunned the market—a 927-page document showing he earned over $1.4 billion from cryptocurrencies in 2025.
Among it, the $TRUMP memecoin alone brought in $635 million in royalty revenue;
World Liberty Financial contributed over $500 million in token sales revenue.
More notably—Trump himself holds over $50 million in Bitcoin in a cold wallet.
As a Galaxy Research analyst put it: "Everyone is talking about the president's crypto income, but no one is talking about the fact that the president stores over $50 million in Bitcoin in a cold wallet."
A U.S. president who controls the global economy, holds a cold wallet, and whose family crypto business has made billions is now pushing hard for crypto legislation—the CLARITY Act has passed the House with 294 votes and the Senate Banking Committee with 15:9.
Additionally, the American Reserve Modernization Act (ARMA) authorizes the Treasury to purchase up to 200k Bitcoin annually for five years, with a final goal of accumulating 1 million—the U.S. government is already one of the largest Bitcoin holders (approximately 328k BTC).
This is not a "policy tailwind"; this is top-level design.
Second force: Kevin Warsh's liquidity pivot
The market had generally believed Fed Chair Warsh favored low rates. Although he emphasized fighting inflation after taking office, on July 2 he indicated inflation risks had "eased." June U.S. employment data came in weaker than expected, further solidifying bets on looser policy.
Warsh himself holds between $100 million and $200 million in cryptocurrencies. A Fed chair with significant crypto holdings choosing to ease liquidity when macro conditions allow—this is not a coincidence; it's logic.
Third force: Macro dividend from the end of the U.S.-Iran war
The dissipation of geopolitical risk premiums will directly drive capital from safe-haven assets to high-beta risk assets. Cryptocurrency is the biggest beneficiary.
3. RWA: A severely underestimated structural bull market engine
As of July 2026, the on-chain value of RWA has reached approximately $26.7 billion to $60 billion. $SOL On-chain RWA surged from less than $500 million in mid-2025 to $3.62 billion. RWA on Ethereum stands at about $15.9 billion.
This is not speculation; it's massive liquidity from traditional finance being moved onto the chain. When institutions can invest in tokenized U.S. Treasuries, private credit, and real estate through compliant channels, the valuation logic of the entire crypto market will be rewritten.
4. Altseason: It will really come this time
Why didn't it come before? Bitcoin's market cap dominance is still between 58% and 61%, and the altseason index is only 45–46, far below the 75 threshold required to confirm altseason.
Why will it come this time?
BTC dominance is testing the key support level at 58.55%—a channel that has persisted for nearly 11 months since August 2025. Once a breakdown is confirmed, the target points to 55.5%, which many traders see as the starting point for broad altcoin rotation. Analysis shows the current altcoin structure is highly similar to that before the 2017 and 2021 bull markets.
The historical script never changes: Bitcoin rises first → opens valuation ceiling → institutions take profits → capital spills over to Ethereum → fully spreads to altcoins.
5. Timeline projection
Current bottom | 2026 Q3 | ETF bleeding stops, whales buy the dip, RSI oversold, multi-tier wallets accumulate simultaneously
Policy catalyst | 2026 Q3–Q4 | CLARITY Act advances, ARMA bill, Warsh sends dovish signals
BTC main uptrend | 2026 Q4–2027 Q1 | Institutional FOMO, massive ETF inflows, strategic reserve expectations
Altseason breakout | 2027 Q1–Q2 | BTC dominance breaks below 55%, capital fully overflows
The oversold conditions in July 2026 are not a continuation of the bear market—they are the final cleanup before a bull market launch. When Warsh's liquidity pivot, Trump's crypto legislation landing, and the end of the U.S.-Iran war resonate together, every oversold indicator will prove to be a golden pit.
Here's the question: When the person controlling the global economy has put $50 million in Bitcoin into a cold wallet, when the Fed chair is himself a crypto whale, and when RWA is moving tens of trillions in traditional assets onto the chain—
What are you waiting for?
#非农爆冷打压加息预期
⚠️ Risk disclaimer: The above analysis is based on historical patterns, current data, and public information for reasoning purposes only, and does not constitute any investment advice. The crypto market is influenced by multiple factors, and actual trends may deviate significantly. Please exercise rational judgment and assume your own risks.
