#Gate广场五月交易分享 Трамп threatens Iran, will Bitcoin fall?

The impact of the Trump-Iran situation on Bitcoin is not simply "threat = decline":
1 Escalation phase → BTC short-term pressure decline
When Trump issues tough threats, market risk aversion heats up, and BTC as a risk asset indeed short-term drops:
When Trump threatens to strike Iran’s energy facilities, BTC drops below about $69,000
More extreme threat rhetoric (such as "civilization will be destroyed tonight") is released, BTC faces a breakdown risk at the $65,000 level, technical analysis indicates that if broken, it may drop to $55,000
After the US military seized an Iranian cargo ship, BTC declined from around $78,000 to about $74,800
2 Signs of de-escalation → BTC rebounds and rises
But it is also worth noting that when signs of easing appear, BTC’s rebound strength is also quite significant:
After Trump issued the Hormuz Strait ultimatum, BTC instead rose from $67,000 to $68,500 within an hour, some investors see BTC as an alternative safe haven asset
On May 6, when Trump unexpectedly softened tone, paused naval actions, and hinted at reaching an agreement with Iran, oil prices fell, and stocks and BTC moved higher in sync
At the end of March, when Trump mentioned ending the Iran war, BTC’s monthly increase ended a five-month consecutive decline
3 Current situation: fragile ceasefire but still maintained
The latest situation shows that the US-Iran ceasefire is currently fragile but still maintained, and Trump’s easing statement on May 6 caused the market to re-enter risk assets, with BTC rising back above $80,000.
However, Bank of America warns that the Iran war remains the biggest risk to the 2026 economy, potentially dragging growth through inflation and energy supply bottlenecks.

Summary judgment: The impact of Trump’s threats to Iran on Bitcoin depends on the severity of the threats and market interpretation:
Extreme escalation threats (military strikes, blockade of straits, etc.) → Short-term likely to drag BTC down because the market overall is risk-averse and risk assets are sold off
De-escalation signals or progress in negotiations → BTC will follow other risk assets in rebounding
BTC simultaneously has the dual attributes of "risk asset" and "safe haven alternative," performing differently in various scenarios, but recent trends show that the risk asset attribute dominates more.
Currently, BTC is trading above $80,000, and the ceasefire situation is still maintained, but the situation is highly unstable, and any new threat escalation could trigger short-term volatility. It is recommended to closely monitor the situation, make rational judgments, and avoid impulsive actions based on a single event.