📊 NFP Night Flash Report | Dollar Cools Off, Crypto Heats Up?
August NFP came in at just +75K (with July’s +73K together marking multi-year lows), and unemployment ticked up to 4.3%. U.S. bond yields dropped to ~4.2%, the DXY slipped, and markets instantly priced September rate-cut odds at over 90%.
⚖️ Macro Translation
Weak NFP = Fed forced dovish → Dollar drops, risk assets pump.
Strong NFP (if it had surprised big) = Dollar spikes, crypto gets slashed.
Historical notes: In bull years, ETH fell -21% (2017) and -12% (2021) in September. But October “Uptober” has often averaged +20% gains. September is for trimming; October is for sprinting.
📊 Market Watch
FedWatch: 95% odds of a rate cut — nearly locked in.
Institutions: August ETF + treasury inflows bought ~2.5M ETH, 33x monthly issuance.
Whales: Some BTC OGs rotated into ETH and fully staked → clear capital shift.
Volatility: On NFP day, BTC’s average move is 1.7x that of a normal day.
🎯 Key Levels
$BTC : Support at 108K, resistance 112K → 116K.
$ETH : Battleground at 4,250 — hold that and target 4.8K → 5K.
$SOL : $200 is a refuel zone; with volume, targets 216 → 238.
🧭 Trading Playbook
Conservative: Wait for confirmation before chasing — less upside, less risk.
Aggressive: Scale into dips (BTC 108K, ETH 4.25K, SOL near 200), stops must be tight.
Swing: September chop is the “bull market lunchbox” — buy retracements, keep year-end targets (BTC 120K, ETH 5K+) intact.
🐂 Conclusion
This isn’t just another data day — it’s a policy reset. Weak NFP = Fed goes dovish, dollar loses footing, crypto takes the baton. September may wobble, but October is often the launchpad. The question is: are you just watching, or getting on board?
---------------------
📊 非农夜速报｜美元凉了，币圈嗨了？
8 月非农仅 +75K（连 7 月 +73K 一起创近年低点），失业率升到 4.3%。美债殖利率掉到 ~4.2%，美元指数 DXY 回落，市场直接把 9 月降息机率定价到 90%+。
⚖️ 宏观翻译
弱非农 = Fed 不得不鸽 → 美元掉、风险资产嗨。
强非农（假设爆表）= 美元喷、币圈挨刀。
历史考古：牛市年份的九月，ETH 曾跌过 -21%（2017）、-12%（2021）；但 10 月「Uptober」常平均涨 20%+。九月健身，十月冲刺。
📊 市场观察
FedWatch：降息机率 95%，几乎笃定。
机构：八月 ETF +金库买进 ~2.5M ETH，是当月新发行量的 33 倍。
鲸鱼：有比特币 OG 出货，转仓到 ETH 并全额质押 → 资金明显转向。
波动性：NFP 日 BTC 波幅常是平日的 1.7 倍。
🎯 技术位
$BTC ：支撑 108K，上压 112K → 116K
$ETH ：多空分水岭在 4,250，站稳再挑战 4.8K → 5K
$SOL ：200 美元是补给站，放量上攻看 216 → 238
🧭 操作思路
保守派：等确认站稳再追，少吃戏也少挨刀。
积极派：分批低吸（BTC 108K、ETH 4.25K、SOL 200 附近），止损写死。
波段派：九月震荡就是「牛市便当盒」—逢回加仓，年底目标不变（BTC 120K、ETH 5K+）。
🐂 结论
这不是普通数据日，而是政策校正场。弱非农 = Fed 必鸽，美元失势，币圈接棒。九月可能抖，但十月往往是火箭发射台。你要决定自己是看戏，还是上车。
