The impact of the digital assetization of debt in the United States on the global financial system.

In September 2025, at the Eastern Economic Forum held in Vladivostok, Russia, Anton Kobyakov, a senior advisor to Russian President Vladimir Putin, made a striking statement. He warned that the United States is scheming to reshape the global financial system using encryption and stablecoins to secretly devalue its national debt, which amounts to up to $37 trillion. This viewpoint quickly sparked widespread discussion among international media and the economic community. Kobyakov pointed out that the U.S. intends to transfer the debt into the "crypto cloud" and shift the losses onto other countries globally through a system reset, making the latter "scapegoats." Although this claim sounds bold, it is not unfounded. It echoes similar assertions made earlier by MicroStrategy CEO Michael Saylor, who suggested that the U.S. government sell its gold reserves to buy Bitcoin in order to reshape the global reserve asset landscape.

The Scale and Pressure of the U.S. National Debt

As of September 4, 2025, the total federal debt of the United States has climbed to approximately $35 trillion, an increase of $2.09 trillion compared to the same period in 2024. This figure is equivalent to about 130% of the United States' Gross Domestic Product (GDP), setting a new historical high. The debt structure is primarily composed of short-term Treasury bills (maturities of 4-52 weeks), medium-term Treasury notes (2-10 years), and long-term Treasury bonds (20-30 years), with publicly held debt being dominant. This surge is attributed to the ongoing fiscal deficit: in the first half of the 2025 fiscal year, the federal deficit has already exceeded $1 trillion, far above pre-pandemic levels.

A historical review shows that the U.S. debt issue was not sudden. After World War II ended in 1945, U.S. public debt as a percentage of GDP reached as high as 106%, but it was gradually digested through post-war economic growth and moderate inflation. During the stagflation period of the 1970s, debt was "diluted" through high inflation, reducing the actual burden by about 30%. After the global financial crisis in 2008, quantitative easing (QE) further amplified the money supply, leading to a surge in asset prices. During the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020, the Federal Reserve's balance sheet expanded from $4 trillion to nearly $9 trillion, triggering an inflation peak from 2021 to 2023, with the consumer price index (CPI) exceeding 9% at one point. These events all confirm the classic path of debt devaluation: not through default, but by reducing the real value of debt through monetary expansion.

In 2025, debt pressure will further intensify. Although the Federal Reserve has shifted from aggressive interest rate hikes in 2022 to gradual rate cuts, geopolitical tensions (such as the continuation of the Ukraine conflict) and domestic spending (such as the extension of infrastructure legislation) are driving up borrowing demand. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) predicts that the U.S. fiscal deficit will exceed 6.5% of GDP in 2025, and without structural reforms, the debt/GDP ratio will surpass 150% by 2030. Against this backdrop, Kobyakov's remarks directly point to the possibility that the U.S. may turn to digital assets as a new tool to amplify its "seigniorage" advantage—namely, by controlling the global reserve currency, the U.S. dollar, and exporting the burden of inflation.

The Economic Principles of Debt Depreciation

The core of debt devaluation lies in distinguishing between nominal value and real value. Suppose the total value of the global economy is equivalent to a 100-dollar bill, and the United States borrows the entire 100 dollars for expenditure. When repaying, if the equivalent currency is returned directly, it would require sacrificing current resources. However, as the issuer of the dollar, the United States can inject an additional 100 dollars by printing money through the Federal Reserve, effectively doubling the money supply. At this point, the supply of goods and services remains unchanged, and prices rise accordingly: a product that originally costs 1 dollar increases to 2 dollars. This is the mechanism of inflation. The 100 dollars repaid is nominally the full amount, but its actual purchasing power is only half, effectively reducing the real burden of debt by half.

This principle originates from the quantity theory of money (MV=PT), where an increase in the money supply (M) without a corresponding rise in transaction velocity (V) or output (T) will lead to an increase in the price level (P). Historically, ancient Rome diluted debt by debasing silver coins (reducing silver content); Britain in the 18th century funded the Napoleonic Wars through paper money expansion; in 1933, the Roosevelt administration in the U.S. prohibited private gold ownership and decoupled the dollar from gold, effectively devaluing it by 40%. Contemporary cases are even more subtle: in 1971, Nixon's "gold shock" ended the Bretton Woods system, allowing the dollar to break free from the gold standard and permitting unlimited expansion. In the following decade, the average inflation rate reached 7.1%, effectively absorbing the debts from the Vietnam War and the oil crisis.

In the digital age, this mechanism can be amplified through stablecoins. Stablecoins like USDT (Tether) and USDC (issued by Circle) claim to be pegged 1:1 to the US dollar and are usually backed by US Treasury bonds and cash reserves. As of September 2025, the global market capitalization of stablecoins has approached $300 billion, a year-on-year increase of 120%, with USDT's market capitalization exceeding $150 billion. These assets are widely used for cross-border payments, DeFi (Decentralized Finance), and remittances in emerging markets, with an annual trading volume exceeding $10 trillion, equivalent to twice that of Visa. What Kobyakov calls the "crypto cloud" is essentially a blockchain network where users hold "digital dollars" through stablecoins, indirectly increasing the demand for US Treasury bonds.

The depreciation process is as follows: the United States buys government bonds through QE, injecting liquidity; stablecoin issuers invest reserves in these government bonds, forming a closed loop. As adoption increases, global users (especially in developing countries) holding stablecoins are essentially "lending money to the U.S." If the Federal Reserve triggers inflation, the purchasing power of stablecoins depreciates concurrently, with the losses shared by global holders rather than being limited to the U.S. This is different from the traditional dollar system, which primarily exports inflation through trade deficits; stablecoins achieve "invisible exports" through smartphones and wallets, circumventing political resistance.

Global Spread and Control Mechanisms of Stablecoins

The rise of stablecoins originated from the distrust of traditional banks after the financial crisis of 2008 and the convenience of blockchain. In 2014, Tether launched the first dollar stablecoin, after which the market experienced explosive growth. By 2025, stablecoins will dominate on-chain shares, with Ethereum and Tron leading the way; the former is used for smart contracts, while the latter dominates Asian trading. The U.S. regulatory framework further catalyzes this trend: the Genius Act, passed in 2024, allows banks, trust companies, and non-bank entities to issue regulated stablecoins, provided they obtain approval from the Treasury. This opens the door for tech giants like Apple or Meta, the latter of which could launch products like "MetaCoin," which appear neutral but are subject to U.S. law.

From a control perspective, stablecoins provide "CBDC-level" influence without the label of central bank digital currency (CBDC). Although the U.S. CBDC pilot (such as Project Hamilton) is progressing slowly, stablecoins have achieved similar functions: real-time settlement, KYC (Know Your Customer) compliance, and blacklist mechanisms. In September 2025, a Federal Reserve report showed that over 70% of stablecoin reserves were invested in short-term government bonds, pushing down government bond yields and lowering U.S. borrowing costs. If debt were to shift to the stablecoin system, the U.S. could algorithmically adjust the pegging ratio or freeze addresses to "reset" the system, similar to the gold decoupling in 1971.

However, the hidden concern of this strategy lies in the trust deficit. The audit of stablecoin reserves relies on issuer reports, such as Tether's quarterly disclosures, but lacks real-time blockchain verification. Foreign governments find it difficult to confirm authenticity 100%, especially amid Sino-U.S. trade friction. In 2025, the European Union will promote the MiCA regulation requiring 1:1 reserve transparency for stablecoins, while China has banned crypto transactions and is shifting to the digital yuan (e-CNY). Kobyakov's warning stems from this: the U.S. can change the "rules" at any time, externalizing systemic risk.

Global Countermeasures: The Resurgence of Central Bank Gold Reserves

In the face of the potential disruption of dollar hegemony, central banks around the world are accelerating the diversification of their reserves. A survey by the World Gold Council in 2025 shows that 44% of central banks are actively managing their gold reserves, an increase of 7 percentage points from 2024. In the first eight months of 2025, net gold purchases reached 650 tons, the highest level since 2010. Among them, the People's Bank of China has increased its holdings for five consecutive months, with reserves reaching 2,300 tons; the Central Bank of Russia has reserves of over 2,500 tons, followed closely by India and Turkey.

The advantage of gold as a "non-sovereign" asset lies in its millennia-long consensus: it is not manipulable by any country. In September 2025, the price of gold surpassed $3,500 per ounce, partly due to central bank demand. According to Reuters, gold has surpassed the euro to become the second-largest global reserve asset after the US dollar, with its share rising to 12%. 76% of central banks plan to increase their gold holdings over the next five years to hedge against US dollar fluctuations. This reflects emerging markets' concerns about stablecoins: superficially pegged to the dollar, but in reality amplifying the US "seigniorage."

The drive for emerging economies to turn to gold also includes geopolitical risks. After the Russia-Ukraine conflict in 2022, the West froze $300 billion of Russia's foreign exchange reserves, prompting a global reflection on the "weaponization" of the dollar. In 2025, BRICS countries (Brazil, Russia, India, China, South Africa) will promote de-dollarization, with gold accounting for 15% of trade settlements. At the same time, Bitcoin, as "digital gold," has attracted attention, with its price stabilizing around $117,000 in September 2025, an increase of over 50% from the beginning of the year. However, the volatility of Bitcoin (annualized volatility around 40%) makes it more suitable as a supplement rather than a core reserve.

Michael Saylor's Bitcoin Strategy and America's Hidden Path

Kobayakov's views resonate strongly with Saylor's public recommendations. Saylor, the founder of MicroStrategy, has transformed the company into a "Bitcoin proxy" since 2020, accumulating over 250,000 Bitcoins with a market value of approximately $300 billion. In May 2025, at the Bitcoin 2025 Conference, Saylor reiterated his "21 ways to wealth," emphasizing the scarcity of Bitcoin (a cap of 21 million coins) and institutional adoption. He has suggested that the Trump administration sell the U.S. gold reserves (approximately 8,133 tons, worth over $600 billion) to purchase 5 million Bitcoins, thereby "demonizing" gold assets, hitting back against rivals like China and Russia, while also reshaping the U.S. balance sheet. Saylor calculates that if this strategy is implemented, U.S. assets would appreciate to the scale of trillions, controlling the global reserve network.

In 2025, the influence of Saylor extended to the Trump family. Eric Trump revealed that Saylor suggested mortgaging the Mar-a-Lago property to raise $2 billion to invest in Bitcoin, predicting that Bitcoin would surpass $170,000 by the end of 2026. Although the Trump administration (if victorious in the 2024 election) has not publicly adopted this, private channels have paved the way. MicroStrategy's stock price rose 150% in 2025, attracting Wall Street to follow suit, as Tesla continued to hold Bitcoin.

The U.S. government avoids direct intervention to prevent triggering global panic. There are rich historical precedents: after World War II, the U.S. indirectly controlled the European economy through the Marshall Plan; in the internet era, private enterprises innovated first, followed by adoption by the state (such as NSA surveillance). The strategy for Bitcoin may be similar: the government does not directly purchase coins but allows enterprises to take the lead. In the future, if Bitcoin's market value exceeds that of gold (currently about $15 trillion), the Federal Reserve could indirectly enter the market by investing in MicroStrategy (similar to its stake in Intel in the 1980s). In September 2025, Bitcoin futures prices reached $117,500, indicating market optimism. This path is gradual and deniable, aligning with the United States' tradition of "soft power."

Realistic Possibilities and Future Outlook

Kobyakov's warning, though colored by his geopolitical stance, stands up to scrutiny. The US debt is unsustainable, and traditional inflation has reached its limit (with a 2025 CPI target of 2%, but the actual figure hovering around 3.5%). Stablecoins provide an outlet: by 2025, their market value is expected to account for 0.3% of the global M2 money supply, but the growth trajectory suggests it could reach 10% by 2030. If combined with Bitcoin, the US could construct a "dual-track" system: stablecoins output liabilities while Bitcoin hoards value.

However, challenges coexist. Regulatory uncertainty is high: the Biden administration supports stablecoins, but the Trump camp emphasizes "crypto freedom." Global resistance is intensifying: the EU's MiCA regulation requires localization of non-US dollar stablecoins by 2025, and there are over 300 million users of China's e-CNY. The "hard asset" alliance of gold and Bitcoin may become a countermeasure, and the BRICS gold standard initiative is gaining traction.

In short, this "crypto debt reset" is not a conspiracy, but an extension of economic logic. As the issuer of the reserve currency, the United States has a natural tendency to export burdens; digital technology merely amplifies its leverage. The latest developments as of September 2025—$37 trillion in U.S. debt, $300 billion in stablecoins, a surge in gold purchases, and 117,000 Bitcoin—indicate an acceleration of transformation. The world must remain vigilant: the double-edged sword of financial innovation may reshape order or lead to a new crisis. Only through diversified reserves and international coordination can risks be mitigated.