Bitcoin Market Enters Speculative Phase as New Whales Drive Momentum

NUPL at +0.52 signals investor profits and optimism, marking a shift from steady growth to heightened speculative activity in the Bitcoin market.

The short-term holders currently control 44% of the realized capitalization, with new whales controlling the trade as long-term holders make profits.

Increased liquidity, institutional activity, and ETF inflows contribute to unabated speculative purchases to keep Bitcoin prices high despite more short-term trading dominance.

The Bitcoin market enters a speculative phase as on-chain data signals increased activity from new market participants. The shift is evident from NUPL and realized capitalization metrics.

NUPL Indicates Market Confidence

The Net Unrealized Profit/Loss (NUPL) is presently +0.52, a level that has been historically associated with euphoria. In previous cycles, like 2017 and 2021, NUPL above 0.5 was the sign that speculative trading was likely to heighten. Approximately 97% of Bitcoin’s circulating supply is now in profit, showing strong confidence among investors.

Source: Cryptoquant

High NUPL readings indicate that most investors hold profitable positions, suggesting limited immediate upside without some market consolidation. This zone marks optimism transitioning into broader speculative activity. Traders monitoring this metric often note potential for short-term corrections.

The current NUPL suggests Bitcoin is in a mature phase, reflecting market strength and capital inflows. Market participants can track NUPL trends for timing entry points and observing shifts in investor behavior.

Short-Term Holders Gain Influence

Short-term holders (STH) now account for 44% of Bitcoin’s realized capitalization, the highest level ever recorded. Long-term holders (LTH) are realizing profits while new entrants, often called “new whales,” dominate trading activity.

This change marks a transfer of dominance from LTH to STH, historically coinciding with the final expansion phase of bull markets. As more STH participate, volatility tends to increase, affecting price momentum over weeks.

XWIN Research Japan notes that this structural shift differs from past cycles. ETF inflows, growing stablecoin liquidity, and institutional participation are absorbing selling pressure, creating a steadier type of speculative phase.

Market Liquidity Supports Continued Activity

In addition to holder dynamics, liquidity conditions remain favorable. Expanding stablecoin supply ensures capital is available to support speculative buying. Institutions continue to participate, balancing selling pressure from profit-taking.

The continuous inflow of liquidity allows Bitcoin to maintain elevated prices even as new whales accumulate positions. This creates a framework where speculative activity can coexist with structural stability.

Market watchers now track the share of STH carefully. A decline in short-term holder dominance would signal a return to accumulation, potentially driven by long-term investors resuming control of realized capitalization.

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