Monero (XMR) price forecast bullish setup points to a $420 breakout

The price of Monero (XMR) cryptocurrency is showing renewed strength after weeks of consolidation and regulatory turbulence across the privacy coins industry.

Analysts point to improving technical indicators, renewed investor confidence, and strong resistance testing as signs that Monero could be entering a bullish phase.

Monero builds momentum above key levels

Monero’s price has climbed steadily, trading at around $317.22 at press time, with its price fluctuating between $306.80 and $330.16 over the past 24 hours.

The cryptocurrency’s market capitalisation stands near $5.88 billion, supported by a 24-hour trading volume of more than $250 million.

Notably, over the last year, XMR has surged by more than 100%, reaffirming its resilience in a volatile market.

Technical analysis strengthens the bullish case

Since early February 2024, Monero’s price has followed an ascending channel pattern, forming higher lows even after sharp market corrections.

The token recently bounced from its 100-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at around $295, showing strong support at lower levels.

Technical charts also point to a possible MA50/100 bullish crossover — a signal that could trigger a major upside move.

CoinMarketCapIf this crossover is confirmed, analysts predict a rally of up to 79.64% from recent lows, potentially propelling Monero to $420.

Some forecasts even suggest gains of 128% if the rally aligns with the 2.0 Fibonacci extension, placing the token back at levels not seen since May 2025.

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) has climbed above the 52.75 mark, reflecting increasing buying pressure, while the MACD indicator approaches a bullish crossover.

These signals suggest growing momentum among traders, further strengthening the bullish outlook.

Privacy coins thriving amid regulatory tension

The broader market dynamics also favour Monero’s rise.

Other privacy-focused cryptocurrencies, including Zcash (ZEC), are thriving as global regulators tighten their grip on digital assets.

As regulatory pressure mounts, demand for privacy coins has increased.

The US Department of Justice recently confirmed the largest-ever crypto seizure, recovering 127,271 BTC valued at around $14 billion from Cambodia’s Prince Group.

In addition, Japan is preparing new rules to curb crypto insider trading, which could drive investors toward privacy-oriented tokens.

Monero’s price has benefited from this shift, as investors seek refuge in assets that emphasise confidentiality and financial independence.

Monero price outlook

For Monero (XMR) traders, the critical battle lies between the $320 and $347 zones.

A successful breakout above these resistance levels could confirm the start of a new bullish phase.

However, $345 remains a crucial ceiling, having capped gains since mid-June, but recent rebounds suggest growing momentum among bulls.

If Monero breaks past the $345 barrier, it could test the $372 level next, before targeting the $420 zone.

However, should Monero’s price fail to maintain support above $295 could pull the price back toward $285 or even $190, where the 1-week MA200 sits as long-term protection for the bullish setup.

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