The Federal Reserve (FED) spokesman shouts "Fed completely disconnects": Losing third-party small non-farm employment data increases market uncertainty.

ADP halting data coincides with the U.S. government shutdown, and the Federal Reserve assesses employment and inflation amid double information outages. Nick Timiraos analyzes decision-making risks (Background: After Trump’s shutdown, large-scale layoffs of federal employees occurred, freezing the $8 billion green energy project of the Democratic Party) (Supplementary Background: The White House announced the official shutdown of the U.S. government, and Trump officials praised: seizing the opportunity to lay off redundant employees). Nick Timiraos, a reporter for the Wall Street Journal, referred to as the “voice of the Federal Reserve,” pointed out in an article on the 21st that the Federal Reserve (Fed) is experiencing the most severe information gap since the 2008 financial crisis: the private payroll company ADP suspended the weekly employment data at the end of August, and the government shutdown starting October 1 has halted official statistics. Faced with this double blow, decision-makers have to judge labor market trends almost in the dark, a situation described by Timiraos as “blind flying,” which tests the Federal Reserve's core belief in navigating with data. Key data interruption: a chain reaction triggered by a speech. Federal Reserve Board member Christopher Waller mentioned the long-cited ADP weekly payroll data in August, prompting ADP to review its sharing process. The company subsequently closed the interface under the pretext of “enhancing data governance,” terminating a free data flow covering about 20% of private workers since 2018. Chronicle Journal analyzed that data privacy disputes, business model considerations, and rising external attention are all reasons for ADP's withdrawal. Still reeling from the first heavy blow, the Federal Reserve encountered a U.S. government fiscal deadlock. The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) employees were forced to take leave, and multiple monthly data ceased to be published, along with the loss of ADP's real-time observations, leaving the Federal Reserve in a vacuum when measuring employment and wage growth. Policy choices forced to move forward in the fog. Timiraos pointed out that there is still significant debate within the Federal Reserve on whether to cut interest rates by 0.25 percentage points in October; the market's federal funds futures imply a nearly 99% chance of a rate cut, but core CPI remains at 3.1%, far above the 2% target. If judgment is incorrect, there is a risk of “inflation not falling but rates falling first,” and it may also misestimate the actual tightening extent of the labor market. Volatility has begun to spill over, with stock, bond, and cryptocurrency prices particularly sensitive to the employment data void, prompting traders to increase the frequency of short-term position adjustments. Powell once reflected during the 2008 crisis: “If we had the ADP weekly data back then, we might have detected the economic turning point earlier.” Today, this statement ironically highlights the embarrassment of returning to a black box. Information structurally difficult to resolve in the short term. In the face of the information outage, the Federal Reserve attempted to persuade ADP to restart cooperation but made no progress, turning instead to the New York Federal Reserve survey, ISM manufacturing employment sub-indices, and other scattered indicators. Oanda analysts believe these samples are small and cover industries incompletely, making it difficult to restore the full picture. The trend of data concentrating on private platforms has become a foregone conclusion, and the Federal Reserve needs to design new data collection and verification mechanisms, and even review whether the operational framework centered on federal funds rates is still appropriate. The data gap has also sparked debates over public interest versus business interests. Is it reasonable for the central bank to demand free access to high-frequency micro data? Where should companies draw the line between privacy and brand risk? Timiraos bluntly stated that the credibility of future monetary policy will be deeply tied to data acquisition capabilities; if the negotiation mechanisms cannot keep pace, similar power outages will recur. After pulling the plug: market uncertainty multiplies. The halting of data by ADP coincides with the government shutdown, pushing the Federal Reserve into an unprecedented information island. In the short term, the probability of decision-making errors and severe market turbulence rises simultaneously; Timiraos reminds investors at the end: the boundaries of information power are being reshuffled, and if the central bank wants to maintain credibility, it needs not only new data but also new negotiation and regulatory frameworks. The Federal Reserve is about to face the last two FOMC meetings for 2025 on October 28 and December 9, and losing critical end-of-year information leaves decision-makers at a loss, facing mid- to short-term monetary policy uncertainties. Financial markets will score this test with volatility; the outcome depends on whether the Federal Reserve can find the next guiding light in the dark. Related reports: What impact will the U.S. government shutdown have on Bitcoin? If the U.S. government shuts down: Non-farm and CPI reports may be delayed, Federal Reserve rate decisions trapped in uncertainty fog. Bitcoin breaks through $119,000, recording the highest in a month and a half; U.S. stocks remain unfazed by the government shutdown, with all four major indices closing higher. (The Federal Reserve's voice calls “Fed fully offline”: losing third-party small non-farm employment data, the market intensifies uncertainty). 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