Standard Chartered: Clearing 19 billion in the crypto market is a good thing, paving the way for Bitcoin to surge to 200,000 dollars.

The $19 billion liquidation has just concluded, and Standard Chartered still predicts Bitcoin will reach $200,000 by the end of the year. Analyzing ETF funds, hedging narratives, and policy risks (Background summary: Insider Whale closes Bitcoin short order, will BTC reverse? Note the volatility from tonight's US CPI report) (Background information: Arthur Hayes: The new Japanese Prime Minister is pushing economic stimulus policies, which may help Bitcoin surge to $1 million) The Bitcoin market faced a $19 billion liquidation on October 10, with prices dropping to a four-month low of $104,000. However, Standard Chartered reiterated its end-of-year target of $200,000 just 15 hours prior and emphasized in a recent interview that the clearing is a once-in-a-century opportunity. Even though the short-term panic atmosphere has not dissipated, it has not deterred this traditional British bank from increasing its position, making it a focal point in the investment community. Inverse judgments after the liquidation storm Geoff Kendrick, head of global digital asset research at Standard Chartered, pointed out: “After the dust settles from the liquidation event, investors will view this sell-off as yet another accumulation phase, ultimately becoming the next important 'buying opportunity.'” This means that the rapid deleveraging has instead cleared the chips for subsequent price rises. Standard Chartered believes that multiple sharp declines over the past year have shown similar results, and although the scale of funds this time is large, the structure is concentrated in high-leverage long orders. Once the leverage is removed, the selling pressure will ease. ETF spot mechanism tightens supply The primary reason for Standard Chartered's bullish outlook is the structural buying pressure brought by Bitcoin spot ETFs. Data shows that after four days of net outflows, there was a net inflow of $477 million on October 21 alone. Authorized participants must purchase Bitcoin in the spot market to issue new shares, creating actual buying pressure; at the same time, most entrants are institutions with holding periods significantly longer than retail investors, limiting short-term selling pressure. Standard Chartered's analysis team estimates that over 800,000 Bitcoins have been locked by ETFs this year, equivalent to 4% of the circulating supply. Before the halving cycle concludes, this structural demand will continue to restrict circulating chips. The 'digital gold' narrative The second impetus is that the correlation between Bitcoin and gold has risen to a high of 0.85. Gold has reached a historical high driven by global hedging demand. Standard Chartered believes the capital outflow effect will simultaneously boost Bitcoin. The market is also betting on the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates in the coming quarters. If the real interest rate of the dollar declines, the opportunity cost of non-yielding assets decreases, which is also favorable for Bitcoin. Although US President Trump has brought policy uncertainty by revisiting tariff issues, Standard Chartered believes the impacts of interest rate cuts and loose liquidity are more long-term. Risk assessment and long-term goals Kendrick proposed a forward valuation of Bitcoin at $500,000 by 2028 back in February; this time he reiterates a short-term target of $200,000 by the end of 2025, representing Standard Chartered's commitment to a long-term narrative. Their model places three core indicators—ETF absorption speed, on-chain active addresses, and gold pricing ratio—in a central position, and currently, all three are maintaining an upward trend. In comparison to history, although short-term circulating market capitalization growth of over $20 billion requires massive funds, if ETFs maintain a net inflow of $10 billion per month, along with retail investors returning, reaching $200,000 by the end of the year is not a fantasy. In summary, the rapid price drop brought about by the $19 billion liquidation has allowed the market to complete deleveraging and reallocation of chips; the ETF mechanism continues to lock in the spot, coupled with the rising 'digital gold' hedging narrative, intertwining in a macro-loose environment to provide strong support. Whether Standard Chartered's prediction will come true still needs time to verify, but from the comparison of risks and chip structures, this sharp decline indeed provides a relatively clear entry point. Facing the upcoming year-end market, Bitcoin stands at a crossroads where it may reach new highs. Related reports Why did digital gold Bitcoin lose to true gold in 2025? The Bitcoin story of the 2025 Nobel Peace Prize: A female democratic leader uses BTC to combat authoritarian government. Gold experiences a historic single-day drop of 6% 'Hedging market collapses,' experts warn: Is Bitcoin next? <Standard Chartered: The $19 billion liquidation in the crypto market is a good thing, paving the way for an increase in Bitcoin to $200,000> This article was first published in BlockTempo, the most influential blockchain news media.