Gate Research Institute: BTC has rebounded and stabilized at a low level, with a rise in small and mid-cap themes, and privacy and AI sectors becoming the focus of funds.

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Encryption Market Overview

According to CoinGecko data, from October 7 to October 20, 2025, the cryptocurrency market exhibited characteristics of structural adjustment and accelerated integration of infrastructure amid significant volatility. In terms of market performance, BTC bottomed out at 102,100 USD on October 11 and stopped falling, showing an overall pattern of “low-level consolidation and short-term rebound”; ETH rebounded from a low of about 3,680 USD on October 13 to encounter resistance above 3,980 USD.

In the ecological aspect, the number of new developers on Ethereum reached 16,181, continuing to hold the top position in the Web3 ecosystem, with Solana and Bitcoin following closely behind. Developers are increasingly focusing on highly compatible and highly scalable public chains. The macro risk-averse atmosphere has driven the market capitalization of tokenized gold to 3.28 billion dollars, while stablecoins play a key role in providing liquidity support amid market fluctuations. Tether and Circle collectively issued about 74 billion dollars during the same period, pushing the total supply of global stablecoins to over 301.5 billion dollars, setting a new historical high.

In the DeFi sector, JustLend DAO's TVL has risen to 7.82 billion USD, and Aave's stablecoin RLUSD supply has reached 448 million coins, indicating a rapid influx of funds back into leading protocols. The Starknet ecosystem has significantly revived, with the number of blocks exceeding 3 million and staking scale surpassing 600 million STRK. It has launched a Bitcoin staking and institutional incentive program centered around “BTCFi,” driving TVL and stablecoin scale to new all-time highs. The prediction market sector continues to heat up, with Polymarket receiving a $2 billion investment from ICE and launching a stock “up/down” prediction market, while active wallet numbers have surpassed 56,000. Kalshi, in collaboration with Robinhood, has achieved a trading volume of $1.44 billion, setting a historical record.

At the same time, Taiwanese company OwlTing has landed on Nasdaq, and asset management giant Amundi has launched an encryption ETF, indicating that the institutionalization process continues to accelerate. Overall, the market has significantly converged its risk exposure after deleveraging, with risk-averse funds still actively circulating within the market. The focus of funds and narratives is gradually shifting towards the medium to long-term main line of “high-performance infrastructure + compliant assetization,” with BTCFi and prediction markets becoming the core focus of a new round of structural capital flow and market consensus.

Overview of the Rise and Fall Data for This Round

This article groups and analyzes the top 500 tokens by market capitalization, observing their average increase from October 7 to October 20.

The overall average decline is -14.13%, indicating that the market is still in an adjustment phase after continuous pullbacks. There are significant performance differences between different market capitalization ranges, with a structure characterized by “relative resilience in the middle segment and deeper declines at both ends.” Among them, tokens ranked 201–300 experienced the smallest decline, only -10.51%, showing that medium-sized assets have relatively strong resilience in a volatile market; in contrast, the 101–200 rank range saw a decline of -16.48%, making it the weakest among the five groups. Top assets (1–100 rank) averaged a decline of -13.92%, while mid-tail assets (301–400 and 401–500 rank) fell by -15.12% and -14.63%, respectively, indicating that capital has not noticeably concentrated in specific tiers, with overall trading still characterized by high volatility and cautious trading.

Overall, the market in this period continues the consolidation pattern after deleveraging, with mid-cap tokens showing relatively strong resistance to declines, while assets at the extremes adjust more deeply due to larger fluctuations in liquidity and risk aversion sentiment. The market capitalization structure reflects a stage of capital hesitation and sector differentiation, indicating that the market is waiting for new liquidity catalysts and macro signals.

Note: The market cap distribution is based on CoinGecko data, grouping the top 500 tokens by market cap into groups of 100 (e.g., ranking 1–100, 101–200, etc.), and calculating the price fluctuations of the tokens within each group from October 7 to October 20, 2025, then calculating the average for each group as the average increase indicator for that market cap range. The overall average decline (14.13%) is the unweighted average of the individual increases of the top 500 tokens.

Figure 1: The overall average decline is -14.13%, with tokens ranked 201–300 by market capitalization showing relatively strong performance, with a decline of about -10.51%.

Price Change Leaderboard

Over the past two weeks (from October 7 to October 20), the encryption market has experienced significant volatility, with funds continuously rotating between different narrative sectors, leading to sharp fluctuations in certain tokens.

Rising List: The resurgence of privacy narratives, RAIL leads the market

RAIL, as the native token of the decentralized privacy protocol Railgun, has surged over 125% in the past two weeks. Railgun focuses on privacy trading solutions centered around zero-knowledge proofs (ZK-SNARK), allowing users to conduct completely private transfers and transactions on Ethereum and its compatible chains. In mid-October, the official announcement stated that its total privacy trading volume surpassed 4 billion USD (of which 1.6 billion USD comes from 2025), and it confirmed that the Privacy & Compliance Summit 2025 will be held on November 19, sparking strong market expectations for a resurgence in privacy narratives. As discussions on regulatory compliance heat up and funds accelerate back into the privacy sector, RAIL has become a standout representative in the privacy race.

In addition, H (+114.02%) and COAI (+112.00%) follow closely behind, with the former benefiting from the expansion of the on-chain gaming ecosystem, while the latter attracts funding attention through the concept of AI + data computation, reflecting a preference for mid-cap projects with strong narratives.

Decline List: XAN leads the decline, with capital inflow and short-term profit-taking suppressing the trend.

In contrast, XAN (-63.25%) shows the most significant decline on the drop list. This token experienced a rapid increase in the early stage, but subsequently lacked sustained catalysts and trading support, leading funds to gradually flow back to mainstream assets, and the price has significantly retreated from its highs. As the market's risk aversion sentiment intensifies and short-term profit-taking increases, XAN has become the token with the largest correction this period. Others like UXPL (-60.09%), AIA (-60.08%), and XPL (-60.05%) also experienced significant declines, mainly due to previous excessive gains and a decrease in market enthusiasm.

Overall, this period's market style shows structural characteristics of “privacy narratives progressing alongside the AI ecosystem, and a correction of overheating topics.” Privacy projects have gained funding favor due to compliance framework discussions and growth in on-chain transaction volume, while short-term speculative targets are quickly cleared amid volatility. In the future, market focus may continue to revolve around the long-term themes of “privacy compliance” and “combination of AI applications.”

Figure 2: RAIL rose by 125.93%, benefiting from the resurgence of privacy narratives and expectations for the Privacy Compliance Summit in November.

Relationship between Market Capitalization Ranking and Price Fluctuation

To observe the structural characteristics of token performance in this round of market trends, this article presents a scatter distribution chart of the top 500 tokens by market capitalization. The horizontal axis represents the market capitalization ranking (the further left, the larger the market capitalization), and the vertical axis represents the price change percentage from October 7 to October 20. Each dot in the chart represents a token, with green indicating an increase and red indicating a decrease.

From an overall distribution perspective, the number of declining tokens is significantly greater than that of rising tokens, indicating that the market is still in a consolidation phase. Most tokens have a decline concentrated in the -10% to -20% range, while individual stocks with an increase exceeding 50% are relatively scarce and mostly distributed in the mid to later market capitalization range, reflecting that market funds are concentrated in higher volatility small and mid-cap assets.

In the list of price increases, RAIL (+125.93%), H (+114.02%), and COAI (+112.00%) performed the best. Among them, RAIL benefited from the rising narrative around privacy and the expectations surrounding the “Privacy & Compliance Summit 2025”, becoming a leading representative in the privacy sector; H and COAI gained market popularity through their concepts of AI and innovative applications.

In contrast, the tokens that have experienced larger declines are mainly concentrated in previously overheated or low liquidity projects, including XAN (-63.25%), UXPL (-60.09%), and AIA (-60.08%). They generally experienced profit-taking and capital withdrawal after a short-term surge.

Overall, market sentiment remains cautious, with funds leaning more towards short-term speculation and thematic rotations. The volatility and risk characteristics of small- and mid-cap projects are particularly pronounced. Mainstream assets maintain relative stability, with significant structural market characteristics.

Figure 3: Among the top 500 tokens by market capitalization, the number of tokens that declined dominates, and the few projects with significant gains are mainly concentrated in the mid to lower market cap range, indicating a preference for highly elastic and strongly narrative assets.

Top 100 Market Value Rankings

In this round of volatile market conditions, the overall performance of the top 100 tokens by market capitalization shows significant divergence. Mainstream assets remain stable overall, but certain projects with narrative support or safe-haven attributes stand out. Leading the gains is ZEC (+53.05%), driven by a resurgence in the privacy sector and increased market attention on decentralized privacy protocols; as a representative project of decentralized AI networks, it continues to perform at a high level; PAXG (+6.96%) and XAUT (+7.09%) are boosted by rising gold prices and increasing safe-haven sentiment, becoming representatives of stable return intervals; XMR (+1.38%) maintains a slight upward trend supported by privacy narratives. Overall, the projects with the largest gains are primarily concentrated in the two themes of “privacy + real asset anchoring.”

In contrast, some popular projects on the decline list have experienced deeper pullbacks. IP (-44.09%) has the largest drop, mainly affected by the fading hype and withdrawal of funds; ASTER (-39.51%) and APT (-38.91%) have both undergone significant adjustments, indicating a weakening momentum in the mainstream public chain sector; PUMP (-33.78%) and WLFI (-33.03%) are also dragged down by the retreat of speculative community interest, showing pressure in short-term performance. Overall, among the top 100 tokens, funds are more inclined towards assets that have risk-averse characteristics and long-term narrative support, while high Beta projects and Meme concept tokens have seen significantly increased volatility.

Figure 4: Among the top 100 tokens by market capitalization, ZEC and TAO lead the gains, while PAXG and XAUT show slight upward movement supported by risk aversion sentiment; IP, ASTER, and APT have the largest declines, reflecting a temporary retreat in market risk appetite.

Analysis of the Performance in This Round of Volume Release

Trading Volume Growth Analysis

In addition to price performance, this article further analyzes the changes in trading volume of certain tokens to observe market activity and the degree of capital participation. Using the trading volume before the market started as a benchmark, the growth multiples are calculated and compared with the price rebound during the same period to evaluate market attention and short-term capital trends.

Data shows that EBTC, AGENTFUN, SN64, VKHYPE, and KAG are the five projects with the most significant increase in trading volume this period. Among them, EBTC's trading volume increased by 14.31 times, and although the price still fell by -9.72%, the increase in volume indicates a significant rise in market sentiment, with active short-term trading; AGENTFUN also recorded a 10.61 times increase in volume, but the price dropped by -27.52%, indicating that funds are concentrated on short-term speculation, lacking sustained support.

In contrast, SN64 performed the best, with a trading volume increasing by 9.99 times and a price rebound of 33.18%, demonstrating a typical “volume-price resonance” structure, indicating strong market consensus and sentiment driving it; KAG also saw a trading volume increase of 5.65 times while rebounding slightly by 7.30%, with capital inflow tending to stabilize; VKHYPE, despite having a volume increase of 8.12 times, still saw a price drop of -17.57%, indicating that capital quickly withdrew after a brief participation.

Overall, this period's volume projects are mainly concentrated in the mid to low market capitalization range, with a significant increase in capital activity. However, price performance is divergent, reflecting that the market is still in a stage of short-term rotation and emotional games. Although the continuous expansion of trading volume does not necessarily lead to a synchronous rise, it often indicates potential capital attention and opportunities for thematic fermentation.

Figure 5: The trading volumes of tokens such as EBTC, AGENTFUN, and SN64 have significantly increased in this period, among which SN64 has achieved a resonance of price and volume, becoming a representative project of capital attention in the mid to late stage of market capitalization.

Volume Change and Price Analysis

Based on the observation of the ongoing trading volume anomalies, this article further combines price performance to draw a scatter distribution chart of Volume Increase Multiple and Price Change %. The horizontal axis represents the multiple of trading volume increase of the token over the past two weeks compared to the benchmark period, while the vertical axis shows the percentage change in price during the same period, using a symmetrical logarithmic scale to clearly present the structural relationship between “volume increase” and “price fluctuation.”

As can be seen from the chart, the upper right quadrant is concentrated with core assets that have significantly increased trading volume and simultaneously rising prices, representing the main directional focus of funds in the structural rotation of the market. Among them, SN64 stands out the most, with trading volume increasing nearly 10 times and prices rising over 30%. This is mainly stimulated by the news that Chutes AI has become the largest open-source inference service provider on OpenRouter, and the market is highly attentive to its ecological narrative, forming a quantity-price resonance structure driven by the heat of “AI + decentralized inference.”

In contrast, although EBTC and AGENTFUN had a respective issuance of 14.31 times and 10.61 times, their prices still recorded declines of -9.72% and -27.52%, indicating that the increase in trading volume did not drive a price reversal, and the market has a strong atmosphere for short-term trading. SATUSD also recorded high volume but showed weak price performance, reflecting that some funds are concentrated on arbitrage or short-term hedging operations.

Overall, projects in the upper right quadrant generally possess clear information catalysis, strong community support, and good liquidity, making them key targets for concentrated capital rotation in this market cycle; while the lower right quadrant reflects a “volume increase without price rise” pattern, indicating insufficient capital follow-through. The market as a whole is still in a phase of speculation driven by events and thematic popularity.

Figure 6: SN64 falls into the upper right quadrant, forming a significant volume increase structure driven by AI infrastructure narratives and ecological news stimulation; although EBTC and AGENTFUN show a noticeable increase in volume, their prices have not rebounded synchronously.

Correlation Analysis

After discussing the linkage between trading volume and price performance, this article further analyzes the systematic correlation between the two from a statistical perspective. To measure the impact of capital activity on price fluctuations, the “trading volume growth rate / market capitalization” is used as a relative activity indicator, and its correlation coefficient with price changes is calculated to identify the types of tokens in the current market that are most susceptible to capital-driven movements.

From the chart, it can be seen that the correlation coefficients of most tokens are concentrated in the range of 0.7–0.9, showing a strong positive correlation overall, indicating a general linkage effect between increased trading volume and price fluctuations. The color of the bubbles represents the strength of correlation (higher red, lower blue), while the size of the bubbles reflects the market capitalization of the tokens.

Among them, XSO, UDS, and C1USD have the highest correlation coefficients, close to 0.9–1.0, indicating that such small and medium market capitalization assets are very likely to trigger price synchronization fluctuations when trading volume increases, making them typical high-elasticity “volume-price linkage” tokens; in contrast, stablecoin assets like USDT, TUSD, and FDUSD have relatively low correlations (around 0.7–0.75), mainly due to their price anchoring characteristics which limit their volatility, but they still exhibit structural influence during liquidity cycles.

Overall, the market exhibits a clear structure of “correlation stratification”: small and medium-sized market cap tokens show strong price-volume correlation and high volatility, while large-cap or stablecoin assets have low correlation and stable trends. This characteristic reflects a preference for high-elasticity targets for short-term operations, while stablecoins and mainstream assets more often fulfill liquidity and hedging functions.

Figure 7: The trading volume of small and medium market cap tokens like XSO and UDS has the highest correlation with price fluctuations, showing a strong volume-price linkage; stablecoins like USDT, TUSD, and FDUSD have a lower correlation, reflecting a more robust market structure characteristic.

The current round of the encryption market continues the structural rotation pattern, with market sentiment gradually recovering amidst fluctuations, and the characteristics of volume-price linkage have significantly strengthened. Tokens with small to medium market capitalization such as RAIL, COAI, and H have achieved a strong rebound due to narrative catalysis and increased trading volume, becoming the focus of short-term capital speculation; SN64, on the other hand, has gained funding support due to Chutes AI topping OpenRouter and becoming an open-source inference service provider, with clear volume-price resonance. In contrast, although EBTC, AGENTFUN, and others have recorded significant volume increases, their price performance is weak, showing that capital flows are becoming more concentrated.

In addition to trading market trends, several potential airdrop projects are also being continuously promoted, covering popular areas such as AI blockchain, Web3 community incentives, stablecoin deposits, and decentralized node networks. If users can grasp the timing and continue to engage interactively, they are expected to seize positions in a volatile market, obtaining token incentives and airdrop qualifications. The following text will outline four projects worth paying attention to and ways to participate, aiding in the systematic layout of Web3 dividend opportunities.

Airdrop Hot Projects

This article整理了 key airdrop potential projects to focus on during the period from October 7 to October 20, 2025, covering multiple early projects such as OpenSea (the world's largest NFT trading platform), Momentum DEX (a decentralized trading platform deployed on the Sui network), Gopher (a decentralized AI data infrastructure based on the Cosmos ecosystem), and Fraction AI (a Web3 platform that combines artificial intelligence with NFT creation). Users can accumulate participation records through connecting wallets, completing tasks, interacting with trading, and staking operations to obtain qualifications for subsequent airdrops or token allocations.

OpenSea

OpenSea is one of the largest NFT trading platforms in the world, supporting multiple blockchains such as Ethereum, Polygon, and Arbitrum, and providing users with services for minting, trading, and collecting NFTs. As a core infrastructure of the NFT ecosystem, OpenSea is committed to creating an open and decentralized digital asset market that allows creators and collectors to freely trade various artworks, game items, and digital collectibles. Currently, OpenSea has officially launched the Treasure Chest event to reward users for their long-term participation and contributions.

Participation method:

1. Go to the official OpenSea website and connect your wallet.
2. Open the “Open Chest” page and click “Open Chest” to unlock the received chest.
3. After enabling, you can view the reward content, which may include NFTs, tokens, or future airdrop eligibility. Rewards will be automatically sent to your wallet.

Momentum

Momentum DEX is a decentralized trading platform deployed on the Sui network, focusing on high-performance trading experience and flexible liquidity management. The platform provides users with features such as Swap, liquidity addition, cross-chain bridging, and leaderboard incentives, aiming to promote asset flow and user growth within the Sui ecosystem. 【3】 Momentum completed a new round of financing in June and continues to expand its liquidity pools and incentive programs, currently conducting early user interaction activities in preparation for future airdrops.

Participation method:

1. Go to the Momentum official website and connect your wallet (supports the Sui network).
2. Perform token swaps on the “Trade” page to increase interaction frequency.
3. Open the “Liquidity” tab, select the trading pair, and click “Add Liquidity” to add liquidity to earn fees and rewards.
4. Go to the “Leaderboard” to check the points ranking, and obtain a dedicated invitation link in the “Referral Program” to invite friends to participate.

Gopher

Gopher is a decentralized AI data infrastructure platform built on the Cosmos ecosystem, formerly known as Masa. The project aims to achieve decentralized data indexing, AI inference, and model governance through the integration of AI and blockchain, allowing both developers and users to participate in data sharing and model training. Currently, Gopher has launched a testnet and introduced an interactive task program where users can earn Gopher Points by completing tasks, which can be converted into the platform token $GOAI at the TGE.

Participation Method:

1. Go to the Gopher testnet official website and connect your Cosmos wallet.
2. Open the “Gopher Faucet” page, enter your wallet address, and click “Get 5 GOAI Tokens” to receive test tokens.
3. Stake the test tokens obtained on the “Staking” page.
4. Search for blockchain or social data in “DataGopher” and interact with AI tools.

Fraction AI

Fraction AI is an innovative platform that combines artificial intelligence and Web3 technology, dedicated to promoting the development of a decentralized intelligent creator economy through AI algorithm analysis, data modeling, and NFT applications. The platform centers around “AI-driven creativity and digital assets,” supporting users in generating, issuing, and trading AI-generated NFT content, while exploring the integration of AI with on-chain identity and content traceability. To celebrate the launch of the NFT series, Fraction AI has initiated an interactive event on the Galxe platform, where completing tasks can earn points and participate in a $1,000 reward pool lottery.

Participation method:

1. Go to the Galxe official event page and connect your wallet or social account.
2. Complete social tasks, such as following the X account, visiting the official page to accumulate points, which can be used for event lottery and subsequent priority participation in NFTs.

Tip Airdrop plans and participation methods may be updated at any time. Users are advised to pay attention to the official channels of the above projects for the latest information. At the same time, users should participate with caution, be aware of the risks, and conduct thorough research before participating. [Gate]https://www.gate.com/( does not guarantee the issuance of subsequent airdrop rewards.

Summary

Looking back at the market performance from October 7 to October 20, 2025, the overall market continued the pattern of “structural rotation + theme-driven” with significant enhancement in the correlation between trading volume and prices. BTC rebounded and stabilized at 102,100 USD, while ETH started to rally at 3,680 USD, providing market confidence anchors with mainstream assets. The top 100 tokens showed stable trends, with ZEC and TAO leading the privacy and AI sectors respectively; smaller market cap projects performed even more actively, with tokens like RAIL, COAI, and SN64 seeing increases of over 100%, and trading volume multiplying, becoming the main beneficiaries of this round of capital rotation.

From a data structure perspective, the correlation coefficient between trading volume/market capitalization and price increase is concentrated in the range of 0.7–0.9, indicating the market's preference for “high activity + strong narrative” assets. In the scatter distribution, projects with increased trading volume are concentrated in the upper right quadrant, showing a clear structural strength, while stablecoins and mainstream assets are located in the low correlation range, maintaining relatively stable performance. Overall, the market is currently in a “theme-driven, structurally differentiated” phase, with short-term funds focusing on hot sectors' rotation, while long-term funds are monitoring macro liquidity and technical signals, waiting for the catalyst for the next round of trend-driven market.

In addition, the OpenSea, Momentum, Gopher, and Fraction AI tracked in this issue are all in an active incentive phase, each focusing on NFT market ecology, on-chain DEX trading, AI data networks, and AI content economy, with complementary ecological positioning and clear incentive paths. Users can participate in tasks according to project characteristics, such as opening treasure chests, adding liquidity, staking test tokens, or completing Galxe social tasks, to enhance points and potential TGE reward weights. It is recommended to continuously pay attention to the official announcements and interaction activity rhythms of each project to seize airdrop distributions and early bonus windows. <br> Reference Material:

1. CoinGecko, [https://www.coingecko.com/])https://www.coingecko.com/(
2. OpenSea, [https://opensea.io/])https://opensea.io/(
3. Momentum, [https://app.mmt.finance/leaderboard?refer=K9UBGS])https://app.mmt.finance/leaderboard?refer=K9UBGS(
4. Gopher, [https://hub.gopher-ai.com/gopher-faucet])https://hub.gopher-ai.com/gopher-faucet(
5. Fraction AI, [https://app.galxe.com/quest/FractionAI/GChyQt8G4C])https://app.galxe.com/quest/FractionAI/GChyQt8G4C(

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