Gold price expected to reach $8,900 by 2030: Experts reveal 5 reasons for the bullish market

The gold investment company Incrementum has released its 2025 report “In Gold We Trust”, revealing shocking predictions. It points out that gold prices could reach $4,800 in the base scenario and $8,900 in the inflation scenario by 2030. The current gold price surpassing $3,000 is just the beginning, as massive purchases by Central Banks, the destabilization of Dollar hegemony, and structural inflationary pressures are forming a “big longs” market. This explains the full picture of the gold price forecast for 2030 that investors need to know now.

The gold market has entered the second stage of a bull market

(Source: In God We Trust, Incrementum)

According to Dow Theory, a bull market can be classified into three stages: accumulation phase, public participation phase, and euphoria phase. The current gold market is in the second stage and exhibits the following typical characteristics.

Media reports have become more optimistic, speculative interest has increased, new financial products have been launched, and analysts have raised their target prices in succession. Over the past five years, the global gold price has risen by 92%, while the real purchasing power of the Dollar has decreased by nearly 50%. Last year, gold recorded its highest price in Dollar terms 43 times, reaching a historical level second only to the 57 times in 1979.

The report likens the current bullish market for gold to the opposite of the movie “The Big Short.” As the global financial and monetary system is being rebuilt, strategic investment in gold is yielding remarkable returns. In the words of Richard Russell, “There is no greater frenzy than the gold frenzy.”

5 Major Factors Supporting Gold Price Forecast for 2030

Central Bank's Record Purchases: The Central Bank has continued to be a net buyer since 2009, with purchases accelerating significantly following the freezing of Russia's foreign exchange reserves in 2022. For three consecutive years, over 1,000 tons of gold reserves have been added, and the world's gold reserves are expected to reach 36,252 tons by February 2025. The proportion of gold in foreign exchange reserves has reached 22%, the highest level since 1997.

Goldman Sachs predicts that China will continue to purchase gold at a rate of about 40 tons per month. This means that the annual demand from the People's Bank of China will be close to 500 tons, which is nearly half of the total demand from Central Banks over the past three years.

Geopolitical Restructuring and Bretton Woods III: As indicated by Zoltan Pozsar's paper “Bretton Woods III”, the world is transitioning from Bretton Woods II, backed by US Treasuries, to Bretton Woods III, which is backed by gold and commodities. Gold has three advantages: neutrality, the absence of counterparty risk, and high liquidity, making it the optimal anchor for the new currency order.

Impact of Trump Policies: The tariff policy of the Trump administration has raised the average tariff in the United States to nearly 30%, significantly exceeding the approximately 20% during the Smoot-Hawley Tariff Act era of 1930. The Dollar devaluation plan and trade protectionism have created pressure for economic slowdown and aggressive monetary easing by the Federal Reserve, driving up gold prices.

Structural Vulnerabilities of Fiat Currency: Since 1900, the U.S. money supply M2 has increased by 2,333 times, expanding more than 500 times per capita. The report compares this to “the muscles of a steroid-injected athlete,” noting that while it looks impressive, it is structurally weak. The money supply of G20 countries has increased by an average of 7.4% per year, becoming a long-term major driving force behind gold prices.

Portfolio Insurance Feature: An analysis of 16 bear markets from 1929 to 2025 found that in 15 of the bear markets, gold outperformed the S&P 500, with an average relative performance of +42.55%. Gold stabilizes portfolios with predictable resilience, much like the catennaccio tactics in soccer.

The upward potential indicated by the Shadow Gold Price: “Shadow Gold Price” (SGP) is the theoretical gold price if the base money supply is fully backed by gold. Calculation results based on the current market price:

If the US M0 is fully backed by gold: 21,416 Dollar

If the US M2 is fully backed by gold: 82,223 Dollar

40% Coverage Standard of the Federal Reserve Act of 1914: $8,566

25% Coverage Standard from 1945 to 1971: 5,354 Dollar

Currently, the proportion of gold in the U.S. monetary base is only 14.5%, with 14.5 cents of each Dollar backed by gold, while the remaining 85.5% is “air”. During the bull market for gold in the 2000s, this ratio rose from 10.8% to 29.7%. To achieve a similar ratio, the price of gold would need to increase nearly twofold to exceed $6,000.

New 60/40 Portfolio Strategy

(Source: In God We Trust, Incrementum)

Reconsidering the traditional allocation of 60% stocks and 40% bonds, the report proposes a new allocation:

Stocks: 45%

Bond: 15%

Gold as a Safe Asset: 15%

Performance Gold (Silver, Mining Stocks): 10%

Commodity: 10%

Bitcoin: 5%

This new portfolio responds to the loss of trust in traditional safe assets such as government bonds. Performance gold includes silver, mining stocks, and commodities that hold great potential in the coming years. Looking back at the performance of the 1970s and 2000s, silver and mining stocks have a significant chance of a comeback in the last decade.

Potential Risk Factors and Short-term Adjustment Possibilities

The upward trend of gold prices will be maintained until 2030, but there are also factors that could lead to short-term adjustments.

Unexpected decrease in Central Bank demand, reduction of speculative positions, decline in geopolitical premiums (Ukraine agreement, easing tensions in the Middle East, early conclusion of the trade war with China), tightening of FRB interest rates due to a stronger than expected US economy, increase in technical and emotional risks, and a stronger Dollar.

The report predicts that gold prices may decline to around 2,800 Dollars or remain flat in the short term. This adjustment is part of the stabilization process of a bullish market and does not threaten the medium to long-term upward trend.

Conclusion: The Arrival of the Golden Swan Moment

According to Incrementum's forecast model, the price of gold is expected to reach around 4,800 Dollars in the base scenario and around 8,900 Dollars in the inflation scenario by the end of 2030. The current price of gold already exceeds the mid-term target of 2,942 Dollars for the base case by the end of 2025, and it is highly likely to be positioned in between the two scenarios depending on the inflation rate over the next five years.

The long-term rise of gold is based on multiple mutually reinforcing pillars: the inevitable reorganization of the global financial and monetary system, the inflation bias of governments and Central Banks, the rise of gold-affine regional economies, capital outflow from U.S. assets, and the expected excess returns from performance gold.

The current rise in gold prices not only reflects a crisis but may also be a precursor to the “Golden Swan Moment.” As the reliability of the existing currency system declines, gold is regaining its role as a traditional monetary asset. In an era of geopolitical and economic turmoil, gold is once again proving its status as a reliable safe asset.