Correlation between Bitcoin and global macro assets: the larger the market value, the higher the correlation

2023-05-30 01:42:37

Written by Alex Compiled by Luffy, Foresight News

I spent some time over the weekend researching Bitcoin’s correlation with other global macro assets, and here are some of my conclusions:

Bitcoin’s correlation with the tech sector has declined steadily over the past few months; Bitcoin’s correlation with gold has remained relatively stable over the past few months.

Since mid-March, the gap between Bitcoin and the technology industry and gold correlation has gradually narrowed. This phenomenon may be driven by Bitcoin as a safe-haven asset. That being said, Bitcoin is still slightly more correlated with the tech sector right now.

I calculated the 60-day rolling regression of Bitcoin with gold and the tech sector. The r-value reflects the variance in Bitcoin’s correlation with gold and the tech sector.

When the variance percentage of global macro assets is small, it means that Bitcoin’s movement is more “special” because of its low correlation.

As can be seen from the above chart, the correlation between Bitcoin and macro assets in the past five years:

2018-2019: Bitcoin transactions are exceptional because it is a smaller asset.
2020: Bitcoin shows correlation with tech, gold and oil
2021: Bitcoin’s correlation with global macro assets is weak
2022: Bitcoin is strongly correlated with the tech sector
2023: TBD

In general, as an asset’s market capitalization increases, so does the variance in its correlation with global macro assets. Bitcoin’s correlation variance value is higher in 2023 than in 2020, while its market capitalization also triples.

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