CICC: The U.S. economy is struggling to start an upward cycle, diminishing the noise of 'soft data'.

Jinsan data news on March 12th, Zhongjin Company research report believes that since the US election, some ‘soft data’ has clearly increased, which may be more influenced by emotions rather than actual economic recovery. For example, according to the NFIB report, the optimism index of small businesses skyrocketed in November 2024, mainly reflecting the expectations of business owners for tax cuts and regulatory relief by the Trump administration. If only observing ‘hard data’ such as recruitment, profits, and capital expenditure plans, the actual extent of business recovery is limited. At the current point in time, it is recommended to downplay the noise of ‘soft data’ and extract the true signals of the US economy from core economic indicators ‘hard data’.