Ether's stronger rise on the daily chart compared to BTC indicates market changes.

Is the BTC 12 completion stagnation a reversal of the bull run?

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Since July, since BTC reached the 110,000 to 120,000 range, ancient whales have been continuously transferring wallets, waking up from dormant addresses, and conducting large-scale fund transfers.

A dormant address holding 80,009 BTC (approximately 8.69 billion USD) was activated in early July, and the funds were dispersed to 8 new addresses.

Another ancient whale transferred 40,192 BTC (approximately $4.75 billion) on July 17.

A whale that built a position at $10,708 four years ago recently sold 1,000 BTC at an average price of $118,011, making a profit of $107 million.

Another whale transferred 300 BTC (approximately $35.61 million) to Binance, realizing a profit of $93.33 million.

According to Whale Alert, a dormant address containing 3,962 BTC (approximately $468 million) has just been activated after being silent for 14.5 years.

Many addresses that have been dormant for 14-15 years are slowly being activated, transferred, and sold recently. Whales are selling ancient BTC, which will cause a drop in the price of Bitcoin in the short term. The consolidation of BTC coming down from the high of 123000 should be caused by these whales.

It is clear that these whales are planning to sell off. If there is a concentrated large-scale sell-off, it could cause a market drop of more than 30%. However, if the sell-off is done in batches, the market can handle it well and the impact will be smaller.

The address holding 80,000 coins was purchased 14 years ago, and the price of Bitcoin in 2011 was approximately between 1-10 USD. It could be from early mining or from holders who bought in very early; at that time, the network’s computing power was extremely low, and it was possible to mine hundreds to thousands of coins with a laptop.

But no matter what, being able to hold onto BTC for as long as 14 years and still being unmoved despite multiple all-time highs can only be said that the investor’s faith is really strong.

Holding for so long and choosing to sell at this point in time, if it is to take profits, it indicates that the whales believe that the top of this Bitcoin cycle is about to appear. To maximize profits, it is necessary to gradually unload in advance. One can imagine that if BTC breaks through 13-15, there will inevitably be greater selling pressure.

According to the cycle, the time is also approaching quickly, and the continuous selling by the whales is a clear signal. ![])https://img.gateio.im/social/moments-9bc173a892-521f01086d-153d09-7649e1(

Will the duration of this bull run cycle be extended?

A simple way to determine whether it will follow the past four-year cycle is to look at whether Bitcoin and Ethereum will show signs of being overbought and overheated in the fourth quarter, such as Bitcoin reaching above 250,000 and Ethereum reaching above 10,000. In past bull runs, there were severe overbought signals in various indicators, such as MVRV > 3 and NUPL > 0.75. If the market shows signs of a bubble, it will inevitably burst, marking the onset of a bear market. Conversely, if there is a steady rise, with Bitcoin still between 13-15 by the end of the year and Ethereum below 5,000, it indicates that the market is not overheated, and there will naturally be no large-scale downward trend. This suggests that the cycle is being extended or entering a super cycle. A significant change in this round is that the Federal Reserve’s interest rates have remained high, which is also why most altcoins are still in a dormant state. ![])https://img.gateio.im/social/moments-9bc173a892-f61f78cbf7-153d09-7649e1(