Daily Analysis of #BTC

1️⃣ Structural interpretation Bitcoin is currently in a "key support lost, trend weakening" pattern. The key point is that it has completely reversed all the gains from the beginning of the year to now. A violent decline has left market confidence on the brink of collapse. The core task at present is to observe whether the price can find a new balance point quickly amid panic selling and build an effective bottom structure. Here we will not talk about technical experience; there will be a surge, which is the last chance to escape. The market is experiencing a single token decline, which will not trap many people; only when there is a rebound and FOMO sentiment appears will the inducement to buy succeed.
2️⃣ Capital Flow & On-chain & Exchange Dynamic Capital Flow (Market "Blood Transfusion" Situation): Institutional capital is undergoing large-scale withdrawals. Data shows that the U.S. spot Bitcoin ETF has experienced a massive capital outflow, with a net outflow exceeding $1.4 billion in a single week. This marks the collapse of the core pillar that previously supported the market rebound. On-chain data (whales' "hidden cards" movements): Long-term holders (whales) have become the main force behind this round of selling. Blockchain data indicates that long-term Bitcoin holders have sold approximately 815,000 Bitcoins in the past 30 days, marking the highest selling activity since the beginning of 2024. More critically, "whale" wallets holding Bitcoin for over seven years are continuously selling at a rate of more than 1,000 Bitcoins per hour. Many early investors view $100,000 as a significant psychological profit-taking point. Exchange dynamics (Market "Sentiment" Thermometer): High-leverage longs face a "bloodbath." In the past 24 hours, the total liquidation amount across the network has reached $492 million, with longs accounting for $330 million of this figure, making up the vast majority. The situation in the past 4 hours has been equally grim, with liquidation amounts reaching $83.7 million, of which long positions accounted for $75.34 million.
3️⃣ Do not blindly buy the dip when trading within the day. Until a clear bottom reversal signal appears, any contrarian buying is like a moth to a flame. The aggressive traders are struggling to rally in the 96000-97400 range, and there are long upper shadows and bearish engulfing patterns indicating stagnation. Consider lightly shorting and going with the trend. For the conservative traders, wait for a reversal within an hour before taking action. My advice is that "not operating" is the best operation. Keep cash abundant and wait for the market to show a clear signal of stopping the decline and stabilizing.
4️⃣ Risk Warning
Emotional Selling Spread Risk: Market negative sentiment has sharply risen, and the positive/negative sentiment ratio has significantly decreased, far below normal levels. In extreme panic, investors are prone to irrational selling, leading to unexpected price "flash crashes." Macroeconomic Pressure Risk: The market's expectation for a Federal Reserve rate cut in December has significantly cooled, with the probability dropping below 50%. Meanwhile, after the U.S. government shutdown ends, a large number of delayed economic data will be released in quick succession, putting the market back under pressure from a fundamental "data vacuum," with extremely high uncertainty. Technical Bear Market Risk: Bitcoin has currently dropped over 20% from its high in October, entering a technical bear market. If the $94,000 support is confirmed to be effectively broken, there may be further downside potential.