#我的2026第一条帖 Non-farm Night Market Surge? Will the cryptocurrency market surge wildly or crash after a rapid decline amid the rate cut frenzy?

Recently, the cryptocurrency market has experienced increased volatility influenced by macro policy expectations. The calls for rate cuts by U.S. officials and the upcoming non-farm payroll data have become the core variables affecting market direction. After a weak correction in coin prices earlier, a rapid rebound was achieved due to joint calls for rate cuts by fiscal and Federal Reserve officials. Tonight’s non-farm report will further clarify market expectations, and it is crucial to watch for volatility risks following the data release. Below is a detailed market analysis.

1. Macro News: Rate Cut Expectations Rise, Coin Prices Halt Decline and Rebound
Last night, the U.S. weekly initial jobless claims data was worse than expected. Affected by this, the cryptocurrency market continued its weak downward trend. Bitcoin fell to a low of 89,200, and Ethereum briefly dropped to around 3,050, wiping out the gains made earlier this week. However, the market saw a turning point in the evening. U.S. Treasury Secretary Yellen publicly expressed a strong desire for the government to lower interest rates and urged the Federal Reserve to further cut rates; meanwhile, Fed official Mester reiterated that a 1.5 percentage point (150 basis points) rate cut by 2026 should be implemented to boost employment. These statements significantly strengthened market expectations for rate cuts, directly driving Bitcoin to rebound quickly, surpassing the 90,000 mark, and even rising above 91,000 in the early morning. Ethereum also followed the rebound, returning above 3,100.

2. Technical Analysis: Multi-Cycle Signal Divergence, Rebound Momentum Uneven
For Bitcoin, the price found support and rebounded when it fell to the middle support line on the daily chart. However, the RSI indicator measuring momentum on the daily level showed a death cross, indicating that the short-term downtrend still dominates. On the four-hour chart, the RSI has fallen into oversold territory and started to turn upward, and the MACD shows weakening downward momentum. On the hourly chart, the rebound momentum has already weakened. Ethereum’s trend is similar to Bitcoin: it also experienced a weak decline yesterday, dropping to around 3,050 before quickly rebounding back above 3,100, but it failed to push higher overnight, peaking around 3,140. Technically, the 3,050 support line on the daily chart remains valid, but both RSI and MACD indicate stronger bearish forces. The four-hour chart shows slight signs of correction, while the hourly chart remains weak.

3. Short-term Trend Outlook: Focus on Rebound Strength, Watch Non-farm Data
In the short term, the market shows a need for rebound correction, but overall, it remains somewhat weak. Attention should be paid to the strength of the pullback. Short-term resistance for Bitcoin can be monitored at 92,000 and 93,000 on the four-hour chart, while support levels are at 90,000 and around 89,000. For Ethereum, key support is at 3,050, with the 3,000 level also being important. Short-term resistance above is at 3,160 on the hourly chart and around 3,200 on the four-hour chart. If buying pressure is strong enough, testing between 3,230 and 3,250 is possible. Today, observe the rebound situation first; the most critical factor is tonight’s U.S. non-farm payroll data—this data directly reflects the U.S. employment market condition. Its strength or weakness will directly change market expectations and trigger volatility in the cryptocurrency market, so close attention is needed.