$BTC $ETH $BNB The Federal Reserve suddenly forecasts a 150 basis point rate cut by 2026—Is this a signal of easing liquidity or a precursor to an economic crisis?

On Thursday, Eastern Time, Fed Governor Milan made a major prediction: by 2026, interest rates could be lowered by about 150 basis points. How exaggerated is this figure? It’s equivalent to six consecutive rate cuts of 25 basis points each! In comparison, the entire 2025 saw only a 75 basis point reduction under policy pressure, effectively doubling in 2026.

Milan provided two key reasons. First, the US CPI has approached the official 2% target, and maintaining high interest rates could harm economic recovery. Second, the latest labor market data shows signs of cooling; if this trend does not improve in the coming months, the Fed will need to take aggressive stimulus measures.

But here’s an interesting background: Milan was appointed as a Fed Governor last September and has long been viewed as a spokesperson for certain political directions within the central bank. During the two rate cuts in October and December last year, he was the only dissenting member, arguing that the cuts were too small—he advocated for at least a 50 basis point reduction to be effective.

What does this mean? If the Fed leadership truly adjusts according to certain political intentions in 2026, a large-scale easing of 150 basis points is not just a fantasy. Even without such aggressive changes, a 75 basis point rate cut for the year (equivalent to a 50% reduction) still represents a significant liquidity release.

For crypto market participants, this divergence in expectations is worth noting. Historically, when the Fed enters a rate-cut cycle, capital tends to flow into risk assets. Mainstream cryptocurrencies like BTC and ETH usually perform strongly in a low-interest-rate environment. However, this may also indicate underlying concerns within the US economy—requiring aggressive easing to sustain growth.

What do you think about this policy direction? Will 2026 truly become the "year of easing"? What do these economic signals mean for the market?