Recently, gold prices have been fluctuating within the range of $4464-$4472 per ounce, appearing to be stagnant. In fact, this is the eerie calm before the storm. As the world's most important safe-haven asset and inflation hedge, gold now stands at a crossroads between bullish and bearish forces. The next move will depend on several key variables to determine the outcome.

**Why are the reasons for bullish gold so compelling?**

When it comes to factors supporting higher gold prices, it's like a "potent cocktail." Expectations of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve are growing stronger, with official Milan even stating that a 150 basis point cut could occur by 2026. Plus, the new chair is likely to promote easing policies, which is fundamentally positive for gold.

Geopolitical tensions are also fueling the rally. U.S. airstrikes, the prolonged Russia-Ukraine conflict, and rising geopolitical risks all reinforce gold's safe-haven attributes. Meanwhile, the U.S. federal deficit has soared to $2.05 trillion, directly eroding the dollar's credibility. In this context, assets like gold, which do not rely on debt, become especially attractive.

Institutional investors are also bullish. HSBC forecasts that gold prices could reach $5000 per ounce in the first half of the year. Central banks and ETF funds are continuously buying, providing solid support levels.

**But risks cannot be ignored**

A rapid rise from 4300 to 4500 will inevitably lead to profit-taking and a pullback. Recent rebalancing operations of the Bloomberg Commodity Index may also cause short-term disturbances. If U.S. economic data unexpectedly improves or if the Fed's final rate cut is smaller than market expectations, gold could face a correction of 5%-20%. Additionally, potential supply shocks from gold recycling in India are another risk factor to watch.

**Which data should we focus on next?**

First, the U.S. non-farm payrolls data, which gauges the health of the labor market and directly influences the Fed's policy stance. Next, keep a close eye on the dollar index and U.S. Treasury yields, as changes in these figures will directly affect gold's holding costs. Monthly central bank gold purchase data and geopolitical developments are also important catalysts.

Currently, this narrow range of fluctuations essentially reflects both bulls and bears testing each other ahead of key data releases. Short-term volatility may increase, but in the long run, the three pillars—loose monetary policy, geopolitical risks, and fiscal deficits—remain intact, and gold's upward momentum continues to build. Investors should prepare for the upcoming data to reveal the trend and identify the core asset's directional opportunities.