#NonfarmPayrollsComing

The first Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report of 2026 is indeed the focal point for markets today, January 9. With the consensus forecast sitting around 60K to 70K jobs added in December, the data is being viewed as a "make-or-break" moment for both traditional risk assets and Bitcoin's current consolidation phase.

Here is a breakdown of the current setup and how the data might swing the needle for BTC.

1. The Macro Setup: Low Hire, Low Fire

The U.S. labor market has entered a phase described by analysts as "low hire, low fire."

Expectations: The market expects a modest increase of 60K jobs (down from 64K in November).

Unemployment: Forecasted to edge lower to 4.5% (from 4.6%).

Wages: Average hourly earnings are expected to rise by 0.3% month-on-month, which keeps inflation concerns alive.

2. The Fed Factor
Investors are currently pricing in a low chance (under 15%) of a rate cut at the January meeting, but a much higher chance (~45%) for March.

A "Weak" Print (< 40K): Could force the Fed’s hand to be more dovish, potentially raising the odds of a March cut. This is generally bullish for BTC as liquidity expectations rise.

A "Strong" Print (> 80K): Might suggest the economy is too hot for immediate cuts, strengthening the USD and putting downward pressure on BTC.

3. Bitcoin (BTC) Technicals & Sentiment
Bitcoin has been consolidating near the $90.5K–$91K range after failing to break the psychological $95K barrier earlier this week.

Below Consensus (< 50K)Bullish:

Confirms cooling labor market; BTC may attempt a breakout toward $95K again.

At Consensus (60K–70K)

Neutral/Choppy: Market focus may shift to wage growth or the Supreme Court's tariff ruling.

Above Consensus (> 80K)

Bearish: USD strength returns; BTC could test support at the 50-day SMA around $89.1K.

The "Wild Card"

While NFP is the main economic driver, keep an eye on the U.S. Supreme Court. A ruling on the legality of President Trump's tariffs is also expected today. A rejection of the tariffs could trigger a relief rally in risk assets, while an approval might introduce new volatility that competes with the NFP data for market attention.