# NonfarmPayrollsComing

The core of non-farm payroll data is not about "how much new employment" but whether "interest rate cuts are still possible."
Entering 2026, the market significance of non-farm employment data has clearly diverged from the early stages of rate hike cycles. In the past, an increase in new jobs was often seen as a sign of an overheating economy; now, non-farm data more resembles a gauge of "whether the Federal Reserve has room to continue easing." In other words, non-farm data is not only an economic indicator but also a direct clue to the monetary policy path.
If employment growth continues to

#非农就业数据
Tonight's US December non-farm payrolls data came in below market expectations of 60,000 to 73,000, recording only 50,000. This is the first data point since the end of the government shutdown wave at the end of 2025 that the market considers relatively clean, yet it sends a clear warning signal: the momentum of the US labor market's recovery is significantly weakening.
The increase of 50,000 in employment is not only below expectations but also continues to decline from the previous figure. The unemployment rate remains high at 4.6%, failing to fall back to 4.5% as expected, indicati

Non-farm "surface stability" does not mean there are no cracks in the employment market
From a macro perspective, the non-farm data in 2026 may appear to be "surface stable": new jobs will not decline sharply, and the unemployment rate will remain within a manageable range. However, this does not mean the employment market can rest easy. True changes are often hidden within the structure. On one hand, the growth of high-quality positions may continue to slow down, with companies more inclined to control recruitment, increase temporary jobs, or reduce working hours to cope with uncertainty; on