The Federal Reserve may hold steady until June, with US stocks and bonds each gaining amid tariff uncertainties.

【Chain Wen】The latest December non-farm payroll data has been released, and the conclusion is a bit complex—mixed good and bad. The US labor market is clearly slowing down, with indicators like new jobs, job vacancy rate, and wage growth all showing signs of weakening. However, the unemployment rate is somewhat surprising, having slightly decreased.

This result provides the Federal Reserve with more reasons to hold a wait-and-see stance. Based on the reactions from interest rate futures and the bond market, investors have largely reached a consensus: the Fed will not cut interest rates in January, and the earliest possible rate cut might not occur until June.

The question is, there’s an additional variable— the Supreme Court may declare the IEEPA tariffs unconstitutional. If this happens, what does it mean? Economic outlooks could improve, inflation pressures might ease, but the fiscal deficit would likely widen further.

How to interpret the market impact? Under the dual effects of the Fed not rushing to cut rates in the short term and the diminishing tariff disruptions, US Treasuries are not expected to perform well. The probability of long-term high yields remains high. Conversely, the US stock market benefits from the continued enthusiasm for AI and the fading tariff risks, making the outlook relatively optimistic. Especially for consumer staples and industrial companies, which were originally victims of tariffs, now have a chance to breathe, and their rebound could be quite significant.