#期权交割事件 The $28 billion annual options expiration has just concluded. I took a look at the post-expiration position structure and felt a familiar sense of alertness arise. The March quarterly options have now become the largest holding, accounting for over 30%, and most of them are out-of-the-money call options — I’ve seen this combination too many times.

Honestly, what this data reflects is worth pondering. What does a buildup of out-of-the-money call options imply? Market participants are betting on a rebound and a rise. But a closer look at the large block trades before expiration shows that it’s essentially about rolling positions forward. It’s like the market makers shifting their positions, moving from a proven battlefield to a new hunting ground.

There’s no mistake in the judgment that Q4 will be the worst market performance — I’ve also felt that sense of quietness recently. But it’s precisely during these low-spirited times that changes in the options structure are most easily overlooked. More out-of-the-money call options mean that if a rebound occurs, these options will quickly become profitable, and holders will accelerate closing positions to lock in gains, which in turn reinforces the expectation of a rebound — a typical risk accumulation pattern.

My straightforward advice: don’t let the optimism around March options lead you by the nose. This structure itself is both a signal of opportunity and a warning of risk. It’s okay to be optimistic about a rebound, but you need to know where your stop-loss point is. Don’t wait to get caught in a wave of liquidations from these large holdings. The secret to surviving long on-chain is to always stay sensitive to changes in market structure.