Between day 250-300, is typically when bitcoin continues to fall and make new lows.
This cycle, btc has continued to grind higher.
Day 294 of this bear market, statistically another 60 days left.
Still believe it will be shorter in duration, front running the Q4 bottom

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Permutator:

After a 14% breakout, the momentum is strong, but for moderate risk you need to pay attention to position sizing. The risk-reward ratio looks good if TP3 hits 0.0075, but it’s still safer to wait for a pullback to support before entering.

Jamesvanst

07-23 15:46

Gap fill for Brent crude oil, similar to what it did on the downside before the leg higher.

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Jamesvanst

07-23 15:34

Gap fill for Brent crude oil, similar to what it did on the downside before the leg higher.

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Jamesvanst

07-22 16:46

Exactly one month ago since $MSTR bought any bitcoin, longest streak since the bear market started.

MSTR-2.06%

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Jamesvanst

07-20 18:19

Bitcoin's first line in the sand is the short-term holder cost basis at $69k.
Then the 200DMA $73k.

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Jamesvanst

07-18 20:09

Long-term holders have capitulated and selling is now easing, more signs of a bottoming process for bitcoin

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Jamesvanst

07-16 19:44

Bitcoin is now positive for the year against Silver.
Up 70% from the lows

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Jamesvanst

07-15 14:36

Between Feb. 1 and July 15, roughly 669,210 BTC have been purchased between $58,000 and $65,000.
Roughly 6.5% of the circulating supply sits in this range, over 3% of the supply has been added here.
Without MSTR and ETFs.

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MysteriousLittleWorker:

nice。

Jamesvanst

07-14 17:18

BTC priced in Gold, topped in December 2024
BTC priced in SPX, topped in July 2025
BTC priced in USD, topped in October 2025
BTC priced in gold, bottomed in February 2026
BTC priced in SPX, bottomed in June?
BTC priced in USD, bottomed in August/September?

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GateUser-581ec9c8:

hii helo sir please how are you

Jamesvanst

07-14 17:13

I muted BIP 110 about 3 weeks ago, and it was a great decision

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Jamesvanst

07-14 16:13

The next wave for bitcoin is coming from stablecoins and tokenisation.
The money is going to pour into this industry

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Jamesvanst

07-14 13:26

Bitcoin priced in gold is going for its 200DMA at 16oz after being rejected in May.
BTC priced in Silver is already above its 200DMA.

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Jamesvanst

07-07 19:46

$IBIT outperformance today on risk-off

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Jamesvanst

07-07 17:23

The increasingly steep, shorter duration channels and smaller corrections suggest buyers are becoming more aggressive, with dip buying accelerating and momentum strengthening with bitcoin.

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Jamesvanst

07-07 14:39

This is not a productivity boom this is an efficiency and liquidity boom.

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Jamesvanst

07-06 15:23

As I've said repeatedly, bitcoin's daily trading volume is anywhere between $50 billion and $80 billion on any given day.
The market clearly prioritizes the USD reserve. Selling 0.4% of your bitcoin holdings to fund obligations is a drop in the bucket.
The market narrative now needs to move on from MSTR and ETFs for the next cycle.
"When bad news no longer pushes prices lower, the bottom may be in."

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Jamesvanst

07-06 10:05

9 months since the October 6 all-time high for bitcoin

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Jamesvanst

07-05 19:00

The one major difference in the 2026 bear market vs. 2022 is the fact that stablecoin supply (USDT + USDC) has stayed flat, compared to being down only in 2022.
Stablecoin supply grew by 160% during the last bull market (2023 to 2025).
With GENIUS coming in 2027, I expect even bigger growth.
Once flows start entering into stablecoins, that money then enters the crypto ecosystem.

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Jamesvanst

07-04 09:51

Bitcoin against Silver is now above the 200DMA for the first time since July 2025.
Bitcoin topped against Silver in December 2024, months before BTC topped in USD terms.
Metals first, then USD

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Jamesvanst

07-03 20:19

4 charts to show why the bitcoin bottom isn't in based on previous cycles.
LTH Realized Price at $49.3k = BTC has always gone below it.
LTH and STH MVRV have yet to converge with one another.
Realized Price - Average cost basis at $53k
LTH SOPR - LTHs realizing losses, but not at previous capitulation levels.

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