Polymarket отвергает результаты расчетов по «вторжению в Венесуэлу», вызывая недовольство пользователей

Odaily Planet Daily News: Multiple Polymarket users are dissatisfied with the platform’s refusal to classify recent U.S. military actions in Venezuela as an “invasion” and settle related prediction markets accordingly. The controversy centers on Polymarket’s determination that the relevant actions do not meet the definition of “invasion” in its market, and therefore it refuses to pay out participants who bet on “the U.S. will invade Venezuela.”

The article notes that some users believe that U.S. military entry into Venezuela, the detention of the president and his spouse, and the announcement of U.S. “takeover” of related affairs should constitute an invasion. However, Polymarket’s statement indicates that the market only refers to “military operations aimed at establishing control,” and states that the relevant actions did not meet its judgment criteria. The platform has not responded to media inquiries about this.

The commentary article further points out that the gray areas in prediction markets regarding event definitions, problem formulations, and result arbitration may bring uncertainty risks to participants, especially when involving major geopolitical or military events. The article argues that this controversy highlights issues with concentrated rule interpretation authority and limited transparency in prediction markets, and has sparked discussion among some users about fairness and potential conflicts of interest. (MarketWatch)