November 4, 2025
The market has dropped too badly. To be honest, I also feel a bit powerless. This BTC hasn't even fallen below 100,000 yet, and other altcoins have plummeted? Even Ethereum has set a recent record for daily decline, and the current price has almost touched the 1011 spike price. This drop seems a bit too fast.
I have mentioned before that the overall market situation primarily depends on Bitcoin; breaking below 90,000 would indicate a technical bear market. However, the way altcoins are dropping today is concerning. Is there still a possibility of a bull market ahead? Regar

November 3, 2025
The overall market trend is still quite risky. Due to the weak rebound in the past two days, the market has chosen to decline, and the current price has almost reached the low points from previous dips, including BTC's price, which has once again fallen below 110,000. Although the current price of Bitcoin is still some distance from 100,000, the performance of other coins has been relatively poor, with ETH returning to the 3,700 position.
Of course, if we are operating based on the oscillation range, this is a suitable position to enter again in waves. My own grid orders a

November 1, 2025
Happy weekend! The market is a bit boring lately, so it's a good time to have some more entertainment. These days, I’ve been watching the semifinals of the LOL World Championship, and the competitive level seems quite high, definitely worth watching. Tomorrow, there’s the last remaining LPL seed this year, which has collaborated with imax. Even if I can't go to the venue, I can still experience it in the cinema. Although I don't play games anymore, I still enjoy watching the matches.
In fact, I have always held the view that besides investing, one should also enjoy

October 31, 2025
In the blink of an eye, October is coming to an end. Due to the unprecedented crash on October 11, the market has entered a prolonged recovery period. Generally speaking, such a massive liquidation event will require several months for recovery. Originally, October and November were a good time for us to offload, but now it feels a bit awkward. This is because the external macro environment continues the interest rate cut cycle, and the US stock market keeps hitting new highs, while the cryptocurrency market appears extremely sluggish.
This year's performance in the crypto

October 30, 2025
Last night, the market fell again, due to Powell's hawkish public speech. After the market's expectation of a 25 basis point rate cut, Powell emphasized that whether to continue cutting rates in December is "by no means a done deal," and that policy is not on a preset path. He announced that starting from December 1, the balance sheet reduction (QT) will end and will shift to reinvestment to maintain the balance sheet size for a period of time. Since the Fed's expectation management is currently very effective, this "risk warning" essentially means that there will

October 29, 2025
I saw some news that a Solana-themed event recently held in Shenzhen, which was another event in the same series that I attended a few days ago, was suddenly called off for unspecified reasons. However, there has been a recent notice about tightening regulations, which may be related to this. This shows that even though the price of Bitcoin is so high now and the American policies are so open, the entry threshold for newcomers here is still very high, both in terms of the policy environment and the basic technical barriers.
So I have always emphasized that, even up to now, the

October 28, 2025
The market has indeed pulled back in the short term, which means that the range of fluctuations I mentioned yesterday is still intact. I have been doing grid trading lately, and I mentioned this publicly a few days ago. Therefore, even in a fluctuating market, I have some income from the range. In fact, I think the recent grid profits have been quite good, as not only are the fluctuations small, but they are also quite intense, allowing me to match the returns from arbitrage.
Looking at the time, it is now approaching the end of October. My previous estimate for the end of the

October 27, 2025
Let me first talk about what I observed at yesterday's conference, an event organized by Solana aimed at developers and users within the Solana ecosystem. Although it doesn't cover the entire ecosystem, we can still feel some cutting-edge dynamics. Firstly, various capitals still have a very optimistic view of the development of the cryptocurrency space. Many are eager to enter, but due to the compliance and risk control limitations of capital, preparation work before entering needs to be quite thorough, and it won't be overly aggressive. However, it can be confirm

October 25, 2025
In recent days, a new concept has emerged in the crypto world, called the x402 payment protocol. This protocol focuses on payment and is somewhat similar to the payment interfaces of cryptocurrency Wechat and Alipay. I haven't delved deeply into the technical aspects yet, but it can be felt that crypto projects are gradually attempting to break out of existing business model perspectives, which is a good thing. Additionally, this payment concept will have some related projects. I searched using ChatGPT and found a few relevant ones, among which Virtual has a relatively hig

October 24, 2025
CZ has been pardoned, which is a positive development for the cryptocurrency policy I mentioned. In fact, it goes beyond that. Since Trump took office, the policy environment for the entire crypto industry has become increasingly lenient, including the stablecoin legislation. From this perspective, there will be more compliant capital flowing into the crypto industry during Trump's term. What we should bet on, in my view, remains Ethereum, which is closely related to finance, and some DeFi and RWA projects that can be integrated with traditional projects.
To put it simply,

October 23, 2025
This market is really hard to deal with. Although the overall trend is within our expectations, when the market actually drops, it still inevitably causes some panic. Yesterday, the main index fell again to a relatively low position, especially altcoins, many of which dropped to their second-lowest points excluding the spikes, including Ethereum dropping to 3710 USD, even though Bitcoin is still above 105,000.
However, I would like to remind everyone of the risks again. Recently, after a continuous rise in gold prices, there was a significant one-day drop. In a sense, I feel t

October 22, 2025
The market has entered a relatively boring phase, and fluctuations actually require news hype. Yesterday, a piece of news about a possible early end to the Russia-Ukraine conflict triggered a short-term rise in the market. However, after the news-driven operations ended, the market immediately fell. This small fluctuation surprisingly led to a large number of liquidations on both long and short positions, showing just how boring the recent market has been. In fact, I think that since it is like this, it might be better to take a proper break while market sentiment is low. Afte

October 21, 2025
The entire market has dropped a bit again, but it’s actually quite boring; it still falls within the oscillation range we defined. In any case, it’s quite difficult to achieve a significant breakthrough in the near term. What can be expected is a breakthrough after the oscillation. However, to be honest, the difficulty of judging whether a breakthrough will happen is also quite high. After the sharp decline, everyone has seen the market trend and emotional direction; overall, it is oscillating with a slight decline, not including the previous drop of 1011.
The prediction marke

October 20, 2025
I have been researching the on-chain prediction platform Polymarket these past two days, and I've also made some operations. I found that it is quite challenging to achieve a large betting volume on this platform, especially for someone like me who doesn't enjoy gambling. Of course, based on the platform's betting volume and PNL situation, reaching a betting amount of several million is already considered a big player, so I think it is still worth trying out, after all, it isn't particularly competitive.
The reason I am optimistic about on-chain prediction plat

October 19, 2025
Jay Chou posted on Instagram, stating that a magician friend of his invested in Bitcoin using his money, and is currently unaccounted for. According to rumors, this friend may have been liquidated during the sharp drop on 1011 and had no choice but to go missing. It is well-known that Jay Chou is involved in cryptocurrency. His previous NFT, the Jay Chou Bear, caused a lot of people to lose money. However, regarding this investment matter, I suspect that it wasn't Jay Chou himself who profited, but rather a friend of his who took advantage of his reputation to make a big p

October 18, 2025
The market has rebounded a bit, and compared to the despair brought by the downward trend yesterday, things have improved slightly. However, this is a common market condition and atmosphere that we will see in the coming weeks because I believe the consolidation period will not end quickly, and it may take until November for this market situation to change. Moreover, I want to emphasize one point: behind the massive liquidation on October 11, there must be institutions or fund custodians that have collapsed. I suspect that the institutions currently collapsing are in the proce

October 17, 2025
The market has fallen again, showing signs of a downward trend. If you look at my predictions from a few days ago, you should be prepared. It is not surprising for the market to undergo a second bottom test at the daily level; of course, normally, the extreme price shouldn't drop as low as the spike price. To cope with downward trends or fluctuating markets, a good strategy is to implement some bottom-fishing grids. Taking BNB as an example, I previously mentioned selling off the majority in batches above 1000, and now I'm buying back within the grid, setting the lower

Today, I communicated with some industry frens outside and noticed that the market fluctuation isn't significant, taking a day off.