"Asset tokenization" is no longer a novel concept, but over the past year, it has rapidly shifted from "narrative" to "reality." With stablecoins successfully opening the gateway for "on-chain cash," global capital is now turning its attention to larger and more traditional asset classes. In its latest 2026 outlook report, Grayscale outlines a clear "three-wave" roadmap for this trend: the first wave is stablecoins (already accomplished), the second wave is gold and government bonds (currently underway), and the third wave is stocks and private credit (set to launch in 2026-2027). This framework not only offers a concise summary of the current industry landscape, but also provides investors with a precise coordinate system for understanding the pace of the RWA sector and identifying core beneficiary tokens. This article will follow that roadmap, breaking down the logic, key data, and potential opportunities within each wave.
Grayscale’s "Three-Wave" Evolution of Asset Tokenization
In its recent industry report, the Grayscale research team formally introduced the "three-wave" theory of asset tokenization. This framework suggests that tokenization is not a one-step process, but rather a progression from simple to complex, and from highly liquid to less liquid asset classes. The first wave, represented by stablecoins, tokenized "cash" and has already seen widespread adoption. The second wave, led by tokenized gold and US Treasuries, brings commodities and sovereign bonds on-chain and is currently experiencing explosive growth. The third wave will reach broader capital markets, including stocks and private credit, expected to launch in 2026-2027 as regulatory frameworks mature. This model offers clear guidance for understanding the development rhythm of RWAs and identifying investment opportunities at each stage.
Asset Migration: From Zero to Three Trillion
Tokenization began with stablecoins around 2017, when the market focused primarily on mapping fiat currencies onto blockchains to solve the medium-of-exchange problem. Later, tokenized gold projects such as PAX Gold and Tether Gold emerged around 2019, bringing traditional safe-haven assets on-chain. However, it was the surge in tokenized US Treasuries since 2023 that truly propelled tokenization into the mainstream. Against the backdrop of rising interest rates, investor demand for "yield-bearing stablecoins" led to flagship products like BlackRock’s BUIDL and Franklin Templeton’s FOBXX. These developments have provided empirical support for Grayscale’s "three-wave" theory.
According to Grayscale’s projections, 2026 will mark two pivotal turning points. First, the bipartisan push for US crypto market structure legislation is likely to succeed, clearing legal barriers for tokenizing traditional securities like stocks. Second, as the second wave of assets continues to expand, total on-chain asset volume will reach a critical mass, attracting more traditional financial institutions and developers to build issuance and trading infrastructure for third-wave assets (stocks, private credit). As a result, 2026 is highly likely to be the key transition year between the second and third waves.
Comparing the Scale and Growth Potential of the Three Waves
Understanding these three waves hinges on their current market size and future growth potential.
- First Wave: Stablecoins (completed). According to Grayscale’s cited data, as of December 2025, total stablecoin supply surpassed $300 billion, with average monthly trading volume reaching $1.1 trillion. This confirms stablecoins as an indispensable infrastructure in the crypto market, completing the "cash" layer of tokenization.
- Second Wave: Gold and Treasuries (in progress). This is the current focal point of the market.
- Gold: Projects like PAX Gold (PAXG) and Tether Gold (XAUt) have a combined market cap of about $1 billion, marking initial scale.
- Treasuries: According to RWA.xyz, tokenized US Treasury products reached a total market cap of $8-9 billion in 2025. However, this represents just 0.03% of the $26 trillion global US Treasury market. Grayscale notes this is only the tip of the iceberg, with enormous growth potential.
- Third Wave: Stocks and Private Credit (pre-launch). The global stock market exceeds $100 trillion in capitalization, while the private credit market is over $1.5 trillion. Tokenization efforts in these markets remain scattered and experimental, with no significant scale yet. Grayscale estimates that by 2030, the total tokenized asset volume could grow by approximately 1,000 times.
This "three-wave" comparison reveals the core investment logic of the RWA sector. The first wave solved the "liquidity" problem, the second wave introduced high-credit "anchors" like gold and Treasuries, providing stable yield as foundational assets. The third wave aims to "mirror" the entire traditional capital market on-chain, with transaction volume and value capture potential far exceeding the sum of the first two waves.
Dominant Narratives and Diverging Views in the Market
- Mainstream View (Institutional): Institutions like Grayscale are bullish, believing that with the passage of the GENIUS Act and advances in market structure legislation, compliance barriers are being removed. Tokenized Treasuries are not only tools for crypto-native DAOs managing their treasuries, but also bridges connecting TradFi and DeFi, attracting trillions in conservative capital. They see tokenization as the largest gateway for traditional finance to enter the crypto world since ETFs.
- Mainstream View (Crypto-Native): Some DeFi-native developers and investors argue that true value lies not in "replicating" off-chain assets, but in creating native on-chain assets. They worry that directly importing traditional financial rules and assets onto blockchains will dilute the "decentralization" and "censorship resistance" ethos. However, they acknowledge that DeFi lending markets (like Aave, Morpho) backed by low-risk assets such as Treasuries will gain more stable and substantial liquidity, driving "paradigm shift" growth across the ecosystem.
- Point of Divergence: The main debate centers on "who will lead." Will traditional financial giants (like BlackRock, Franklin Templeton) issue assets on chains they control, potentially favoring permissioned networks, or will decentralized protocols issue and manage these assets? This directly impacts the value capture abilities of different blockchains and protocols (such as Ethereum, Chainlink, Ondo).
Is the Institutional Era Really Here?
The authenticity of this narrative can be validated from several angles. First, on the regulatory front, the US passed the GENIUS Act in 2025, granting payment stablecoins clear legal status and easing restrictions on crypto custody banks. Second, in terms of capital flows, global crypto ETPs saw net inflows of $87 billion since early 2024, with a significant portion directed to tokenized asset products. Third, regarding participants, besides giants like BlackRock and Franklin Templeton, institutions such as Harvard Management Company and Abu Dhabi’s sovereign wealth fund Mubadala have begun allocating to crypto asset ETPs, indicating that institutional capital inflows are no longer just talk.
However, caution is warranted regarding the "immediate realization" aspect of the narrative. Grayscale estimates that crypto assets still account for less than 0.5% of assets allocated by US investment advisors. This shows that while the doors for institutions are open, capital entry is a "slow trickle" over the long term, not a "floodgate." Thus, the current growth of second-wave assets is real and sustainable, but an explosion in third-wave assets will require more time, waiting for improved secondary market liquidity and broader institutional acceptance.
Industry Impact Analysis: Beneficiary Token List for Each Wave
Each wave’s evolution drives value growth in its underlying infrastructure and application layers. Based on Grayscale’s analysis, here is a list of core beneficiary tokens at each stage:
| Tokenization Wave | Core Asset Class | Beneficiary Tokens/Protocols | Core Benefit Logic |
|---|---|---|---|
| First Wave: Stablecoins | US Dollar Cash | ETH, TRX, BNB, SOL, LINK | Main chains for stablecoin trading and settlement, plus providers of data and security infrastructure for these transactions. |
| Second Wave: Gold + Treasuries | Physical Gold, US Treasuries | LINK, ETH, SOL, AVAX, BNB | Projects providing cross-chain, price feed, and other core infrastructure (like Chainlink), as well as mainstream public chains chosen by institutions for Treasury issuance. |
| Third Wave: Stocks + Private Credit | US Stocks, Private Equity/Credit | LINK, AAVE, UNI, HYPE, SUI | Requires more complex compliance, clearing, and trading infrastructure. Decentralized lending protocols (Aave) will be pivotal for on-chain credit markets; high-performance chains (Sui) may support high-frequency stock trading; DEXs could become secondary trading venues for on-chain stocks. |
This list is not static. As technology evolves and regulation clarifies, competition among public chains (such as Sui, Monad, and other next-gen chains) may reshape the landscape of the second and third waves. One certainty is that LINK, as core infrastructure connecting on-chain and off-chain data, is growing ever more important in the tokenization process.
Multi-Scenario Evolution Forecast
- Scenario 1: Baseline.
The US market structure bill passes smoothly in 2026. Tokenized Treasury volume exceeds $50 billion within the year, becoming standard for DAO and enterprise treasury management. Lending protocols led by Aave begin widely accepting tokenized Treasuries as collateral, sparking a new wave of DeFi lending growth. Stock tokenization sees pilot projects for a few blue-chip stocks, mainly focused on inter-institutional trading. In this scenario, LINK, AAVE, and mainstream public chain tokens like ETH/SOL directly benefit.
- Scenario 2: Optimistic.
Legislation progresses faster than expected, and traditional financial institutions show high enthusiasm. Tokenized assets are no longer confined to blockchains, but connect seamlessly with mainstream brokerage accounts via ETF-like structures. Platforms like Robinhood and Fidelity allow users to trade tokenized stocks directly. This drives explosive demand for next-generation high-performance chains such as SUI and MEGA, whose architectures support retail-grade, high-frequency stock trading.
- Scenario 3: Risk.
Major partisan disagreements stall the US market structure bill. Regulatory uncertainty forces some pioneers (like BlackRock’s BUIDL) to scale back or shift to private chains. Growth in tokenized assets stagnates, market sentiment reverses, and capital flows back to Bitcoin and other "digital gold" safe-haven assets. This negatively impacts DeFi protocols and public chains reliant on the RWA narrative.
Conclusion
Grayscale’s "three-wave" roadmap offers investors a highly insightful framework for understanding the evolution of the RWA sector. Currently, we are in the middle stage of the second wave (gold and Treasury tokenization). Although the market size is still small, its growth is highly certain and the underlying assets carry low credit risk, making it the best entry point for institutional capital into crypto. For individual investors, focusing on core infrastructure like Chainlink and mainstream public chains hosting these assets is an effective way to position for this wave. At the same time, we should stay alert to signals of the third wave (stocks and private credit), watching for the explosive potential of high-performance chains and decentralized lending protocols. In the crypto industry, understanding the rhythm of trends is often more important than chasing the latest hot topics.
