The "Uptober" failure: Bitcoin records the worst performance since 2015

Crypto traders have long referred to October by the nickname “Uptober” – a playful term that signifies the strong bullish trend of Bitcoin during this month over the years. However, this year seems to be turning into the worst October since 2015.

According to data from CoinGlass, Bitcoin has decreased by 5% since the beginning of the month, trading around 107,000 USD at the end of the Asian session on Sunday. The historical average increase of Bitcoin in October is about 19.8%, only behind November - the strongest month with an average increase of 42%.

The monthly profit of Bitcoin (%) | Source: CoinGlassHowever, macro factors are overshadowing seasonal cycle factors. US-China trade tensions, weakened liquidity, and a series of leveraged position liquidations have hindered the upward momentum.

The drop below 107,000 USD last week triggered an additional 1.2 billion USD in liquidated positions, mainly from long positions opened after the September recovery. Ethereum, Solana, and BNB all fell by 4%-7% during the week, while smaller tokens like DOGE and ADA lost over 20%.

The streak of “fire red” days in October has happened before, but it is very rare. In the past 12 years, Bitcoin has only closed the month of October with a decrease twice – in 2014 and 2018, with a slight drop of 3% in the most recent instance.

However, October 2020 witnessed Bitcoin make a strong reversal from the losses at the beginning of the month to a 27% increase by the end of the month, paving the way for the record peak the following year. With two weeks left in the month, there is still a chance for a rebound.

This year’s “Uptober” may not be living up to its name, but it is clearly a test for its reputation. There are only 11 days left in Uptober to turn things around.

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