XRP News Today: ETF has accumulated $622 million in inflows over 8 days, XRP challenges the $2.35 resistance level.

XRP has regained upward momentum driven by continuous inflows into the Spot ETF, with a cumulative net inflow of $622 million since its launch, maintaining a record of net inflows for eight consecutive days. Although whales took profits, leading to a sell-off of over 180 million tokens within 72 hours, the market's expectation for a Fed rate cut in December remains at a high probability of 84.7%, injecting optimism into the crypto assets market. Technically, XRP needs to break through the $2.35 resistance level and the 50-day exponential moving average in the short term to open up upward space, while regulatory progress and institutional adoption will become key catalysts for future price movement.

XRP Spot ETF Fund Inflow Analysis

Recently, the capital inflow data of XRP Spot ETF has become the focus of market attention. Since the launch of the first batch of products on November 14, the cumulative net inflow reported by four issuers has reached 622 million USD. Although the daily inflow on November 25 plummeted from the previous day's 164 million USD to 35.41 million USD, the net inflow trend over the past eight days still highlights the steady growth of institutional demand. The sustainability of this capital inflow is changing the supply and demand balance of XRP, providing solid support for its price. Notably, the Spot ETF, as a financial innovation tool, allows investors to indirectly hold the underlying assets through traditional securities accounts, thereby lowering the threshold for ordinary users to participate in the Crypto Assets market.

In terms of specific product performance, the Canary XRP ETF (XRPC) has taken a dominant position due to its first-mover advantage, with a net inflow of $329 million since its launch, attracting $243 million on its first day. In contrast, the Franklin Templeton-issued XRPZ ETF, ranked 19th in asset management size, only recorded a net inflow of $69.72 million, falling short of market expectations. According to VettaFi data, Canary Capital's asset management size has risen from $349 million to 153rd on the league table due to the success of XRPC, a significant increase from 238th prior to its launch. This differentiation indicates that both first-mover advantage and brand recognition are crucial in the ETF market, while latecomers need to compete for market share through lower fees or innovative structures.

From the perspective of market structure, the rise of the XRP Spot ETF marks an acceleration of Crypto Assets integrating into the traditional financial system. Similar to the Bitcoin Spot ETF, these products provide a compliant entry point for institutional funds, but the uniqueness of XRP lies in its legal status, which has become relatively clear after the lawsuit with the SEC, reducing regulatory concerns for institutional investors. Data from November 26 shows that the Bitcoin Spot ETF had a net inflow of $128.7 million that day, surpassing similar products of XRP. This competitive funding relationship may impact whether XRP can truly decouple from Bitcoin. If the XRP Spot ETF can maintain strong inflows, it is expected to drive the price to test the October high of $2.6972.

Macroeconomic Environment and Policy Impact

The expectations of the Fed's monetary policy continue to dominate the sentiment in the crypto market. Although the number of initial jobless claims in the U.S. announced on November 26 decreased from 222,000 (for the week ending November 15) to 216,000 (for the week ending November 22), indicating that the labor market remains resilient, this has not shaken the market's bets on a rate cut in December. According to the CME FedWatch tool, the probability of a rate cut in December slightly decreased from 85.2% on November 25 to 84.7%, although this is a significant drop from 91.7% on October 24, it is still far above 30.1% on November 19. This change in expectations reflects that the market is re-pricing the Fed's policy path.

Historically, a loose monetary policy environment tends to benefit risk assets, including Crypto Assets. Interest rate cuts reduce the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets while increasing market liquidity, which partly explains why Bitcoin managed to break through the $90,000 mark on November 26. For XRP, although recent price movement shows its sensitivity to ETF fund flows is higher than that of macro factors, if the Fed truly begins a rate-cutting cycle, it may transmit through two channels: first, by enhancing overall market risk appetite, leading to inflows into Crypto Assets; second, by reducing the attractiveness of traditional safe-haven assets like government bonds, prompting investors to seek higher-yield alternatives.

Santiment network data provides another perspective: the average return of active wallets over the past 30 days shows that Bitcoin is at -6.1% (mildly undervalued), and XRP is at -4.7% (slightly undervalued). This widespread undervaluation is related to macroeconomic uncertainty but also creates potential buying opportunities. It is worth noting that Bitcoin's larger degree of undervaluation may have narrowed after a strong rise on November 26, which would make Spot ETF fund flows a more critical price driver in the short term. From a cyclical perspective, the current market is at a sensitive point where macro policy shifts overlap with industry-specific catalysts, and any surprises could amplify price fluctuations.

Technical Analysis of XRP and Key Price Levels

(Source: TradingView)

XRP rose 0.97% on November 26, closing at $2.2231, partially recovering the previous day's drop of 1.26%, but still lagging behind Bitcoin (up 3.60%) and the overall Crypto Assets market (up 2.83%). This relative weakness is reflected in the technical indicators: XRP continues to stay below the 50-day MA ($2.3713) and the 200-day MA ($2.5218), forming a bearish arrangement. The MA is an important trend judgment tool, and its crossover relationship is often used as a buy and sell signal. The current pattern indicates that the medium-term adjustment pressure has not yet been fully released.

XRP Key Price Levels Overview

Support levels: 2.2 dollars (psychological level), 2.0 dollars (integer support), 1.9112 dollars (previous low), 1.8205 dollars (trend line support)

50-day EMA resistance: 2.3713 USD

200-day EMA resistance level: 2.5218 USD

Resistance level: 2.35 USD (recent high), 2.5 USD (technical psychological level), 2.62 USD (previous high), 2.8 USD (upper boundary of the rising channel), 3.0 USD (round number), 3.66 USD (historical reference level)

From the trading volume perspective, XRP needs to break through the current range with accompanying transaction volume. If it successfully recovers the high point of November 24 at 2.2872 USD, it may test the resistance level of 2.35 USD and the overlapping area of the 50-day EMA. After breaking through this area, the upward space may open, with the next target pointing towards around 2.5 USD. However, if it loses the support at 2.2 USD, it may test the psychological level of 2.0 USD, or even test the key support range between 1.9112 USD and 1.8205 USD. This technical pattern requires investors to closely monitor the interaction between the price and key moving averages.

The derivatives market data provides additional clues. According to historical patterns, the XRP funding rate and changes in open interest can reflect market sentiment. When a price rebound is accompanied by a positive funding rate and an increase in open interest, it usually indicates new long positions entering; conversely, it may signal short pressure. In the current environment, there is a subtle balance between technical and fundamental aspects: bearish technical patterns are at odds with bullish fundamental factors, making the direction of the breakout highly dependent on catalysts, which also explains why analysts are particularly focused on the defense and attack situation around the 2.35 dollar mark.

XRP Future Catalysts and Risk Balance

In the coming weeks, several catalysts may determine the price trajectory of XRP. At the forefront is the daily fund flow data of the XRP Spot ETF; if it maintains a net inflow, it will directly improve the supply-demand relationship. Next is the attitude of blue-chip companies towards XRP as a treasury reserve asset; if more listed companies follow MicroStrategy's example with Bitcoin, it will greatly enhance the institutional legitimacy of XRP. The third factor is regulatory milestones, including the progress of Ripple's application for a US chartered bank license and the advancement of market structure legislation in Congress. These factors collectively constitute the potential upward momentum for XRP.

In a bullish scenario, if the XRP Spot ETF reports strong inflows, well-known companies adopt XRP as a reserve asset, Ripple successfully obtains a banking license, and the Senate passes the market structure bill, the price may break through the 2.35 dollar resistance level and subsequently challenge higher positions like 2.5 dollars and 2.62 dollars. The probability of this scenario materializing depends on the speed of regulatory clarity; currently, the market structure bill still faces resistance in the Senate, but if passed, it will establish a clear regulatory framework for digital assets and reduce policy uncertainty. The banking license may enable Ripple to gain broader financial service capabilities, indirectly enhancing the utility of XRP.

The bearish risks should not be ignored either. If there is a net outflow for the XRP Spot ETF, the Senate obstructs crypto-friendly legislation, blue-chip companies reject XRP as a reserve asset, or the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency delays/denies Ripple's bank license application, the price may test the $2.20 support. If it falls below this level, the psychological barrier of $2.00 and the support at $1.9112 will come under pressure. These risk factors remind investors that the Crypto Assets market is still sensitive to policy changes, especially in the context of a potential slowdown in the legislative process during the U.S. election year. Therefore, diversification and risk management are particularly important.

From the perspective of sector rotation, the performance of XRP may be linked to tracks such as decentralized finance (DeFi) and the tokenization of real-world assets (RWA). If regulations become clearer, XRP, with its positioning in cross-border payments, could become a bridge asset connecting traditional finance and the blockchain ecosystem. If this narrative is recognized by the market, it will attract more long-term investors rather than relying solely on short-term trading sentiment. Therefore, in addition to focusing on price fluctuations, investors should monitor fundamental indicators such as the adoption rate of RippleNet and central bank digital currency (CBDC) collaboration projects, as these are the cornerstones supporting long-term value.

XRP Market Outlook and Investment Strategy

Overall, XRP is at a critical game point in terms of technical and fundamental aspects. The inflow of Spot ETF funds and the expectations of Fed policies have created a favorable environment, but it needs to break through the 2.35 USD resistance level to confirm the rising trend. In the short term, the capital flow data and legislative progress in the next 72 hours may determine whether XRP can decouple from Bitcoin and retest the 3.0 USD level. Historically, December is usually a strong month for Crypto Assets, and if coupled with favorable policies, the possibility of a year-end rally cannot be ruled out.

For investors, a layered strategy can be considered: short-term traders should focus on the breakout direction in the $2.2-$2.35 range and adjust positions based on ETF fund flow data; medium to long-term investors can pay attention to the substantial progress of regulatory milestones and gradually build positions when there is a pullback to the support level. It is important to note that the volatility of the crypto assets market is significantly higher than that of traditional assets, with daily fluctuations exceeding 10% being the norm, so position management is crucial. Additionally, since the correlation between XRP and Bitcoin remains high, overall market beta exposure should be considered during allocation.

From the perspective of industry evolution, the successful listing of the XRP Spot ETF marks the acceleration of the institutionalization process of Crypto Assets. This trend not only changes the asset price formation mechanism but also promotes the improvement of the regulatory framework. In the coming months, as more traditional financial institutions participate, XRP may gradually shift from a “high-risk speculative asset” to a “payment infrastructure asset.” If this positioning shift can be realized, it will have a profound impact on its valuation model. Investors should not only pay attention to price movement but also gain insight into these structural changes to seize the next growth opportunities in the Crypto Assets market.