Bitcoin long-term holder supply hits cyclical low, easing selling pressure and paving the way for market recovery

Bitcoin long-term holder (LTH) data has once again become the focus of market attention. On November 21, after Bitcoin rebounded from its bottom to around $80,000, the supply of long-term holders simultaneously dropped to a cyclical low. As Bitcoin’s price recovered to around $90,000—about a 15% rebound from the low—on-chain data shows that, after a 36% deep correction, selling pressure from the spot market has significantly eased.

This year, Bitcoin’s prolonged sideways movement has mainly been influenced by selling pressure from long-term holders. LTH refers to users who have held Bitcoin for at least 155 days, and their behavior often represents deeper market trends. When Bitcoin “matures” from short-term holders to long-term holders, the LTH supply usually increases; conversely, when long-term holders sell, it often indicates a stage of profit-taking or risk aversion in the market.

Since summer, the holdings of long-term holders have dropped from 14,769,512 in July to 14,330,128 in November, releasing clear selling pressure. Notably, the current decline in supply shares similar characteristics with the previous two significant lows: one in April 2024, after Bitcoin hit its all-time high of $73,000, and the other in March 2025, which was impacted by concerns over Trump’s tariffs and ultimately led to a cyclical low of about $76,000 in April.

Compared with past cycles, previous large-scale sell-offs often occurred during retail frenzy stages like those in 2017 and 2021, accompanied by rapid price surges followed by heavy selling pressure. However, this cycle has shown a more stable and rhythmic structural fluctuation, indicating a fundamental change in the behavior of market participants. On-chain activity no longer operates according to the traditional “four-year cycle.”

Now, the significant easing of selling pressure from long-term holders provides a healthier structural foundation for Bitcoin’s price recovery. As on-chain supply stabilizes, the market is gradually shaking off the heavy selling pressure of the previous period, opening up greater room for the next stage of price movement. (CoinDesk)