New Year Bear Flag Pattern Indicates Bitcoin Targets $76,000

Bitcoin (BTC) approaches the $76,000 mark as the daily chart continues to show a bearish flag pattern.

Trade Outlook: “The Bullish Cycle Has Ended”

In the latest analysis on Thursday, trader Roman shared on X that investors should prepare for another dip in BTC, which could drop up to 17%.

Since hitting a near-80,000 USD local bottom, BTC has not recovered strongly and has mainly oscillated within a slight upward channel. This movement hints at the potential formation of a classic bearish flag pattern—that is, a technical rebound within a larger downtrend, with the risk of forming new lows.

“Let the decline to 76,000 USD begin. The bearish divergence and downward price action are clearly showing their influence,” Roman stated, accompanied by a chart illustrating indicators such as price, trading volume, RSI, and MACD.

Roman also noted that although macroeconomic factors are driving stock markets higher, they are not positively impacting the cryptocurrency market. Even the US interest rate cuts are not supporting Bitcoin.

“Bitcoin has increased by 750% since the macro bottom,” Roman emphasized regarding the 2022 bear market low of 15,600 USD.

“The bullish cycle has ended. The best solution now is to plan for the next cycle when the price returns around the 50,000 USD mark.”

For most of 2025, Roman has repeatedly warned about the risk of a market crash, especially when the RSI signals negative momentum on longer timeframes.

The bearish flag pattern has also garnered attention from the crypto community, with analyst Ted Pillows linking it to the price movements of 2022.

Bulls Strive to Maintain the Rebound

In the short term, some traders see certain signs of improvement. Trader Luca said that on the daily chart, the price is currently above the support zone of the Bitcoin bear market.

This support zone is formed by the 21-day simple moving average (SMA) and the 20-day exponential moving average (EMA), which often act as a “safety net” during bullish corrections.

“If the price can bounce off this support zone, the medium-term outlook will clearly turn bullish again,” Luca shared on X on Thursday.

According to data from Coinphoton, BTC is currently attempting to close a fourth consecutive daily candle above the support zone—this is the longest streak of days above support since early October.