January Odds Scream ‘No Rate Change’ While Powell Shuts Down New Fed Chair Chatter

After the U.S. Federal Reserve trimmed the benchmark interest rate last week, attention now shifts to the Jan. 28, 2026, meeting, where current odds suggest the central bank is poised to leave the target rate exactly where it is.

A Few Days Following the Last Cut, Traders Price in a January Fed Pause

When it comes to the federal funds rate, markets are now betting on a meeting where policymakers leave things untouched, opting for a hold rather than a shake-up. Last week, Powell told reporters that everyone around the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) table agrees inflation remains too high and needs to cool, and that the labor market has eased with more risk lurking ahead — consensus is not the issue.

The real divide, he said, is all about how those risks are balanced and what each policymaker’s outlook looks like. Powell added that he does not believe anyone on the board is angling for a rate hike, stressing that “what you see is some people feel we should stop here and that we’re at the right place and just wait. Some people feel like we should cut once or more this year and next year.”

The context of Powell’s remarks to the press has largely been interpreted as hawkish, even if the message came wrapped in careful, measured language. As far as futures markets go, CME’s Fedwatch Tool shows traders lining up behind a no-change call. The market is putting a 75.6% probability on the Federal Reserve keeping the target rate right where it is.

CME Fedwatch Tool on Dec. 13, 2025. By comparison, the odds of an easing move clock in at 24.4%, while expectations for a rate hike are basically nonexistent. While those numbers can still shift ahead of the next FOMC meeting, even prediction markets are siding with the idea that the Fed leaves the target rate untouched. Kalshi traders are piling into the idea that the Federal Reserve will stay put.

Kalshi market on Fed’s January decision as of Dec. 13, 2025. The “Fed maintains rate” outcome on Kalshi is priced at 79%, giving it a commanding lead, while a 25-basis-point cut trails far behind at 22% and anything bolder barely registers. Polymarket lines up with the same read.

Polymarket bet on Fed’s January decision as of Dec. 13, 2025. Over on Polymarket, the “no change” outcome also rules the board at 78%, pointing to broad agreement that policymakers will keep the target federal funds rate unchanged at the January meeting. A 25-basis-point decrease follows at 21%, landing just a single percentage point shy of Kalshi’s odds.

Read more: Market Analyst Lyn Alden Explains Why the Fed Could Be Forced Into Permanent Printing

Taken together, the odds across futures, Kalshi, and Polymarket all point in the same direction: a January meeting defined by patience, not pivots, with markets firmly expecting the Federal Reserve to hold the line. And if there were any lingering doubts about outside noise seeping into policy decisions, Powell brushed them aside without hesitation. When Fox Business reporter Edward Lawrence raised the “elephant in the room” — the President openly discussing a new Fed chair — Powell’s answer was as blunt as it gets: “No.”

FAQ 🏦

• What are the odds for the January Federal Reserve meeting? Markets assign roughly a 78% probability that the Fed keeps the target federal funds rate unchanged in January.
• Do futures and prediction markets agree on the outcome? Yes, futures markets, along with Kalshi and Polymarket, all point to a no-change decision.
• Is a rate cut priced in for January? A 25-basis-point cut carries low odds, generally in the low-20% range.
• Did leadership speculation affect Powell’s stance? No, Powell flatly said leadership talk does not influence his job or policy decisions.