1.4 million BTC historic turnover! Institutions are buying while retail investors flee, 2026 big explosion.

The founder of IOSG reviews the market of 2025, revealing a historic turnover: long-term holders have cumulatively sold 1.4 million BTC (worth $12.117 billion), all absorbed by institutions, while retail investors' microtransactions have fallen by 66%, and large transactions have risen by 59%. This is not a Bear Market, but rather a paradigm shift of dominance from retail investors to institutions. The first half of 2026 will be a golden window for policy and institutional allocation.

The fatal contradiction between Bitcoin price fall and capital inflow

(Orange represents gold prices, white represents Bitcoin prices, source: NewHedge)

The surface data of the cryptocurrency market in 2025 looks extremely bleak. Traditional assets have exploded across the board, with silver soaring 130%, gold rising 66%, and the Nasdaq climbing 20.7%, while Bitcoin has fallen 5.4%, Ethereum down 12%, and mainstream altcoins have been cut in half. But if you only look at the prices, you are missing the most important signals.

The core contradiction lies in the fact that although BTC has fallen annually, it reached a historical high of $126,080 during that period. More importantly, while the price was dropping, the net inflow of BTC ETF reached $25 billion by 2025, with total AUM reaching $114 to $120 billion, and the institutional holding ratio soared to 24%. This means that some are panic selling while others are buying in a frenzy.

BlackRock IBIT reached $50 billion in AUM in 228 days, becoming the fastest growing ETF in history, currently holding 780,000 to 800,000 BTC, surpassing MicroStrategy's 670,000 BTC. Grayscale, BlackRock, and Fidelity account for 89% of the total assets in BTC ETF. The 13F filings show that institutional holdings account for 24% of the total AUM of the ETF, with professional institutional investors making up 26.3%, an increase of 5.2% compared to the third quarter.

The divergence between price and capital flow reveals the essence of turnover. While long-term holders are selling at high levels, institutional investors are accumulating on the left side. The dominance in the market has shifted from retail investors and OGs to macro investors, corporate treasuries, and sovereign funds; this is not just a simple change of participants, but a rewriting of the rules of the game.

140 million BTC turnover's three waves

From March 2024 to November 2025, long-term holders cumulatively sold about 1.4 million BTC, worth 12.117 billion USD, which is an unprecedented supply release. But astonishingly, the price did not crash, as institutions and corporate treasuries absorbed all this selling pressure.

The first wave of trading occurred from the end of 2023 to the beginning of 2024, when the approval of the ETF drove BTC from 25,000 USD to 73,000 USD, leading long-term holders to take profits. The second wave happened at the end of 2024, triggered by Trump's election, causing Bitcoin to surge towards 100,000 USD, with more chips flowing from early investors to institutions. The third wave spanned the entire year of 2025, with BTC consolidating above 100,000 USD, as veteran players continued to sell in batches.

Unlike the single explosive distributions of 2013, 2017, and 2021, this time it is a multi-wave continuous distribution. Over the past year, BTC has been flat at its peak for a year, a situation that is unprecedented. BTC that has not moved for over 2 years has decreased by 1.6 million coins (about 140 billion USD) since the beginning of 2024, but the market's absorption capacity has significantly strengthened. River estimates that retail investors will net sell 247,000 BTC (approximately 23 billion USD) in 2025, while institutions will be net buyers.

The number of active addresses continues to decline, Google searches for “Bitcoin” have dropped to an 11-month low, microtransaction volume between $0 and $1 has decreased by 66.38%, while large transactions over $10 million have risen by 59.26%. These data points collectively point to the same conclusion: retail investors are selling, institutions are buying, and an epic handover has already been completed.

Institutional target prices collectively bullish for the first half of 2026

When the market structure undergoes fundamental changes, the old valuation logic becomes ineffective. The traditional cycle logic is that retail investor frenzy leads to price spikes, followed by crashes; the new cycle logic is that institutions stabilize their allocations, volatility decreases, price centers rise, and there is structural growth. This also explains why prices are consolidating, yet capital inflows continue unabated.

The target prices set by major institutions are extremely optimistic. VanEck predicts $180,000, Standard Chartered predicts between $175,000 and $250,000, Tom Lee predicts $150,000, and Grayscale believes that new highs will be reached in the first half of 2026. The bullish logic is not blindly optimistic, but is based on three main pillars.

The Three Major Pillars for a Bullish Outlook in the First Half of 2026

1. Unprecedented Policy Honeymoon Period

· The Trump administration signed a cryptocurrency executive order on January 23, 2025.

· Strategic Bitcoin reserves of approximately 200,000 BTC have been established.

· The GENIUS Act stablecoin regulatory framework is implemented

· The SEC Chairman has changed (Atkins takes office) and is friendly towards cryptocurrency.

· Market Structure Bill 77% chance of passing before 2027

2. Institutional allocation has just begun

· 86% of institutional investors have held or plan to allocate digital assets

· A total of 134 publicly traded companies hold 1.686 million BTC

· Harvard University's donated fund holds 116 million USD IBIT

· Sovereign funds such as the Abu Dhabi Investment Council have entered the market.

· Wells Fargo holding $491 million, Morgan Stanley $724 million

3. The technical support is strong

· ETF continued inflows provide bottom support

· The correlation between BTC and the S&P 500 rose from 0.29 to 0.5

· The supply pressure has been released with a decrease of 1.6 million coins that have not moved for over 2 years.

· The scale of stablecoins is expected to rise 10 times in the next three years.

· Institutional holdings are only 24%, far from reaching saturation.

The choice of time window is crucial. There will be mid-term elections in November 2026, and historical patterns show that “election year policies take precedence.” The first half of the year is a golden period for intensive policy implementation and accelerated institutional allocation, while the second half sees increased volatility due to electoral uncertainties. The founder of IOSG is clearly optimistic about the first half of 2026, based precisely on this interaction of political and market cycles.

The new cycle starting point where risks and opportunities coexist

This is not the peak of the cycle, but the starting point of a new cycle. In the short term, within 3 to 6 months, it will oscillate between the range of $87,000 and $95,000, as institutions continue to build positions. In the medium term, in the first half of 2026, driven by both policy and institutions, the target is $120,000 to $150,000. In the long term, in the second half of 2026, volatility will increase, depending on the election results and policy continuity.

Risks include changes in Federal Reserve policy, a strong dollar, potential delays in market structure legislation, long-term holders possibly continuing to sell, and uncertainty regarding the midterm election results. However, the flip side of risk is opportunity; when everyone is bearish, it is often the best time to position oneself.

2025 marks the acceleration of the institutionalization process in the crypto market. The price has fallen by 5%, but ETF inflows have reached 25 billion USD—this alone is the biggest signal. This is a paradigm shift from retail speculation to institutional allocation, a process where speculative chips transform into allocated chips, and a structural change from short-term games to long-term holding. While BlackRock, Fidelity, and sovereign funds are building positions on the left side, retail investors are still entangled in the question of “will it fall further”—this is the cognitive gap.